Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:45 PM

Parti Québécois
Majority

Parti Québécois projected to win

86
of 125 seats • 63 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

125 total seats

PQ
Parti Québécois 86
★
PLQ
Parti libéral du Québec 29
PCQ
Parti conservateur du Québec 7
QS
Québec solidaire 3
Popular Vote

General vote share

PQ
PQ 35.4%
PLQ
PLQ 19.2%
CAQ
CAQ 18.7%
PCQ
PCQ 15.7%
QS
QS 9.1%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2022

RegionPQPLQPCQQSTotal
Montreal RMR MRMR
26 +25
27 +7
0
2 -6
55
Quebec RMR QRMR
10 +10
0
3 +3
0 -2
13
Rest du Quebec RDQ
50 +48
2 +1
4 +4
1
57
Total862973125
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
PQ PQ
67-95 84 seats
PLQ PLQ
23-35 29 seats
PCQ PCQ
2-11 6 seats
QS QS
-1-7 3 seats
01938577695114
63
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (63)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
PQ
8483.171–94
PLQ
2929.224–34
PCQ
66.33–10
QS
33.00–6
CAQ
23.20–11
PVQ
00.00–0
OTH
00.00–0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

PQ Parti Québécois
100.0%
Majority: 99.3% Minority: 0.7%
CAQ Coalition Avenir Québec
0.0%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 99.3%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

PQ PQ majority
99.3%
PQ PQ minority
0.7%
CAQ CAQ minority
0.0%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

MRMR
PLQ 27
PLQ
QRMR
PQ 10
PQ
RDQ
PQ 50
PQ