Last updated: Jan 22, 2026 at 1:28 PM

United Conservative Party of Alberta
Majority

United Conservative Party of Alberta projected to win

51
of 87 seats • 44 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

87 total seats

UCP
United Conservative Party of Alberta
51 +2
★
ANDP
Alberta New Democratic Party
36 -2
Popular Vote

General vote share

UCP
UCP 48.6%
ANDP
ANDP 41.9%
AP
AP 2.9%
ALP
ALP 2.6%
SOV
SOV 1.9%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2023

RegionUCPANDPTotal
Calgary Metropolitan Region CGY
18 +2
12 -2
30
Edmonton Metropolitan Region EDM
5
22
27
Rest of Alberta ROA
28
2
30
Total513687
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
UCP UCP
40-58 50 seats
ANDP ANDP
28-46 37 seats
223038465462
44
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (44)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
UCP
5049.640–58
ANDP
3737.428–46

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

UCP United Conservative Party of Alberta
88.9%
Majority: 88.9% Minority: 0.0%
ANDP Alberta New Democratic Party
11.1%
Majority: 11.1% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

UCP UCP majority
88.9%
ANDP ANDP majority
11.1%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

CGY
UCP 18
UCP
EDM
ANDP 22
ANDP
ROA
UCP 28
UCP