Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:14 PM

United Conservative Party of Alberta
Majority

United Conservative Party of Alberta projected to win

45
of 87 seats • 44 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

87 total seats

UCP
United Conservative Party of Alberta 45
★
ANDP
Alberta New Democratic Party 42
Popular Vote

General vote share

UCP
UCP 47.3%
ANDP
ANDP 41.6%
ALP
ALP 4.3%
AP
AP 2.7%
SOV
SOV 1.8%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2023

RegionUCPANDPTotal
Calgary Metropolitan Region CGY
13 -3
17 +3
30
Edmonton Metropolitan Region EDM
5
22
27
Rest of Alberta ROA
27 -1
3 +1
30
Total454287
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
UCP UCP
38-56 47 seats
ANDP ANDP
30-48 40 seats
223038465462
44
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (44)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
UCP
4746.939–55
ANDP
4040.132–48

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

UCP United Conservative Party of Alberta
75.6%
Majority: 75.6% Minority: 0.0%
ANDP Alberta New Democratic Party
24.4%
Majority: 24.4% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

UCP UCP majority
75.6%
ANDP ANDP majority
24.4%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

CGY
ANDP 17
ANDP
EDM
ANDP 22
ANDP
ROA
UCP 27
UCP