Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:13 PM

Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
Minority

Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario projected to win

52
of 124 seats • 63 for majority
52
41
28
63 maj.
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 52 -28
Ontario Liberal Party 41 +27
Ontario New Democratic Party 28 +1
Green Party of Ontario 2
Other 1

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

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Simulator

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124 seats · 63 for majority
Ontario NewDemocraticParty28Green Party ofOntario2OntarioLiberal Party41ProgressiveConservativeParty ofOntario52Other1

Hemicycle layout is used for universal compatibility across all parliamentary systems and does not represent the actual chamber seating arrangement.

Coalition Builder
Seat Projection

124 total seats

PCPO
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
52 -28
OLP
Ontario Liberal Party
41 +27
ONDP
Ontario New Democratic Party
28 +1
GPO
Green Party of Ontario
2
OTH
Other
1
Popular Vote

General vote share

PCPO
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 36.8%
OLP
Ontario Liberal Party 35.3%
ONDP
Ontario New Democratic Party 19.7%
GPO
Green Party of Ontario 4.4%
OTH
Other 1.6%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

Geographic Levels

Choose which geographical levels to display. Regional level is ABOVE Subnational level.

Regional Summary

RegionPCPOOLPONDPGPOOTHTotal
GENERAL
52
-28
36.8%
-6.2%
41
+27
35.4%
+5.4%
28
+1
19.7%
+1.1%
2
4.4%
-0.5%
1
1.6%
+0.0%
124
97.7%
Eastern Ontario EON
15
-2
38.1%
-5.7%
8
+2
39.8%
+5.8%
2
15.1%
+0.9%
0
4.3%
-0.7%
0
0.7%
+0.2%
25
97.9%
Greater Toronto Area GTA
12
-15
43.5%
-7.5%
16
+15
41.8%
+5.3%
1
9.1%
+1.1%
0
2.4%
-0.1%
0
0.7%
+0.1%
29
97.5%
Northern Ontario NON
5
-1
37.6%
-6.1%
0
17.5%
+3.8%
7
+1
38.9%
+2.4%
0
2.0%
-0.4%
0
1.9%
+0.1%
12
97.8%
Southcentral Ontario SCO
2
-2
32.3%
-5.7%
2
+2
26.4%
+4.7%
5
34.9%
+2.0%
0
2.8%
-0.6%
0
1.6%
-0.2%
9
98.0%
Southwestern Ontario SWO
15
-1
37.6%
-5.3%
1
+1
26.0%
+6.3%
5
20.9%
+0.4%
2
9.1%
-0.6%
1
3.9%
-0.0%
24
97.5%
Toronto TOR
3
-7
27.4%
-6.6%
14
+7
42.9%
+4.6%
8
24.4%
+1.1%
0
2.3%
-0.4%
0
1.0%
-0.0%
25
98.0%
Ontario ON
52
-28
36.8%
-6.2%
41
+27
35.4%
+5.4%
28
+1
19.7%
+1.1%
2
4.4%
-0.5%
1
1.6%
+0.0%
124
97.7%
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
PCPO PCPO
35-67 52 seats
OLP OLP
26-58 42 seats
ONDP ONDP
22-30 27 seats
GPO GPO
1-3 2 seats
OTH OTH
0-1 1 seats
NBP NBP
-1-0 0 seats
ONP ONP
-1-0 0 seats
0153045607590
63
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (63)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
PCPO
5251.835–67
OLP
4242.126–58
ONDP
2727.022–30
GPO
22.21–3
OTH
11.00–1
NBP
00.0-1–0
ONP
00.0-1–0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown. Read the full methodology →

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

PCPO Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
71.9%
Majority: 9.4% Minority: 62.4%
OLP Ontario Liberal Party
26.1%
Majority: 0.6% Minority: 25.5%
Any party wins majority 10.1%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

PCPO PCPO minority
62.4%
OLP OLP minority
25.5%
PCPO PCPO majority
9.4%
Tie
2.0%
OLP OLP majority
0.6%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

Eastern Ontario
EON
PCPO 15
PCPO
Greater Toronto Area
GTA
OLP 16
OLP
Northern Ontario
NON
ONDP 7
ONDP
Southcentral Ontario
SCO
ONDP 5
ONDP
Southwestern Ontario
SWO
PCPO 15
PCPO
Toronto
TOR
OLP 14
OLP