Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Majority
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario projected to win
73
of 124 seats • 63 for majority
Overview
Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region
Electoral Map
Interactive map with riding-level projections
All Ridings
Search and explore all 343 constituencies
Simulator
Create your own projection
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 73
★
Ontario New Democratic Party 28
Ontario Liberal Party 20
Green Party of Ontario 2
Other 1
Popular Vote
General vote share
PCPO 40.8%
OLP 30.6%
ONDP 19.4%
GPO 4.7%
OTH 2.0%
| Region | PCPO | ONDP | OLP | GPO | OTH | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Ontario EON | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
Greater Toronto Area GTA | 25 -2 | 1 | 3 +2 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
Northern Ontario NON | 5 -1 | 7 +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Southcentral Ontario SCO | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Southwestern Ontario SWO | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
Toronto TOR | 6 -4 | 8 | 11 +4 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Total | 73 | 28 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 124 |
Seat Probability Distribution
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Region:
Parties:
PCPO55-83 71 seats
ONDP21-30 27 seats
OLP12-37 23 seats
GPO1-3 2 seats
01734516885102
63
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (63)
| Party | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
PCPO | 71 | 70.7 | 58–82 |
ONDP | 27 | 26.4 | 23–29 |
OLP | 23 | 23.5 | 14–35 |
GPO | 2 | 2.3 | 2–3 |
OTH | 1 | 1.0 | 1–1 |
NBP | 0 | 0.0 | 0–0 |
ONP | 0 | 0.0 | 0–0 |
Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.
Win Probability
Chance of winning most seats
Progressive Conservative Party of OntarioMajority: 86.4% Minority: 13.5%
Ontario Liberal PartyMajority: 0.0% Minority: 0.1%
Any party wins majority 86.4%
Election Scenarios
Probability of each outcome
PCPO majority PCPO minority OLP minority Tie
0.0% Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority