Scroll to zoom · drag to pan Grey — projection in preparation

2,107

Elections you can simulate

194

Countries with a working simulator

210,633

Constituencies mapped

1789

First election in the archive

Current projections

The state of the world

All 195 countries
Canada (Federal) 49.3% Liberal Party of Canada 169 of 343 3 shortUnited States 51.3% Democratic 223 of 435 MajorityUnited Kingdom 63.2% Labour Party 411 of 650 MajorityFrance 31.0% New Popular Front 179 of 577 110 shortGermany (Bundestag) 26.0% Christian Democratic Union of Germany 164 of 630 152 shortAustralia 62.7% Australian Labor Party 94 of 150 MajorityNew Zealand 39.3% New Zealand National Party 48 of 122 14 shortIndia 44.2% Bharatiya Janata Party 240 of 543 32 shortJapan (Shūgiin) 67.7% Liberal Democratic Party 315 of 465 MajorityBrazil 19.3% Liberal Party 99 of 513 158 shortSouth Africa 39.8% African National Congress 159 of 400 42 shortMéxico 47.2% National Regeneration Movement 236 of 500 15 short

Seats are the projected total for the party currently ahead, out of that country's full chamber — which differs by system. Hover any bar for the rest of the split. Every one of these countries can be re-run yourself in the simulator, along with historical elections going back to 1867.

The maps, polls, and simulators behind the projections

Explore Our Tools

World Election Simulator Swing any party on one map and watch 194 countries recalculate. Election Map Maker Paint constituencies, edit results, and share your own election map. Seat Projections Constituency-level projections with confidence intervals from Monte Carlo simulation Electoral Map Interactive map showing projected winners across all 343 federal constituencies Poll Tracker Latest polling data with trend charts and pollster analysis Election Simulator Create your own projection by adjusting party support levels Constituency Finder Search and explore all constituencies with detailed breakdowns District Drawer Redraw the boundaries yourself, then rerun the election. Scenario library Election scenarios published by readers. Open any of them, or fork one. Historical Data Past election results and electoral trends over time Virtual Election Don't believe the polls? Show us your vote!

About Poliwave

Poliwave takes today's polls and turns them into a seat projection for every constituency, using past results and a swing model. It runs the election thousands of times to show the range of likely outcomes, not just a single number.

Canada is the most detailed jurisdiction: every federal election since 1867, all ten provinces, down to each riding. In 2025 Poliwave produced the most accurate seat count of any Canadian federal projection. Built and run by one person, free and without advertising.

Why Poliwave Read the Methodology Track Record

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The full apparatus

  • Monte Carlo forecasts — win probabilities and full seat ranges
  • Dissemination-area and block-group geography, and the poster studio
  • A saved scenario library that syncs, with shareable links
  • Landslide and the District Drawer

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Poliwave does not conduct polls. Projections are statistical estimates based on publicly available polling data.