Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

Liberal Party of Canada
Plurality

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

156
of 343 seats • 172 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

343 total seats

LPC
Liberal Party of Canada 156
CPC
Conservative Party of Canada 134
BQ
Bloc Québécois 36
NDP
New Democratic Party 15
GPC
Green Party of Canada 2
Popular Vote

General vote share

LPC
LPC 38.1%
CPC
CPC 37.2%
NDP
NDP 11.1%
BQ
BQ 7.7%
GPC
GPC 3.3%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

RegionLPCCPCBQNDPGPCTotal
Alberta AB
1 -1
35 +1
0
1
0
37
Atlantic Canada ATL
25 +1
7 -1
0
0
0
32
British Columbia BC
19 -1
16 -3
0
7 +4
1
43
Ontario ON
68 -2
50 -2
0
3 +3
1 +1
122
Prairies (Sask/Manitoba) PR
8 +1
18 -2
0
2 +1
0
28
Quebec QC
33 -11
8 -3
36 +14
1
0
78
Territories TR
2
0
0
1
0
3
Total15613436152343
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
LPC LPC
117-193 154 seats
CPC CPC
100-172 137 seats
BQ BQ
27-42 35 seats
NDP NDP
9-18 15 seats
03978117156195234
172
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (172)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
LPC
154154.6123–187
CPC
137137.0106–167
BQ
3535.028–41
NDP
1514.411–18
GPC
22.01–3
PPC
00.00–0
OTH
00.00–0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

LPC Liberal Party of Canada
67.0%
Majority: 19.2% Minority: 47.8%
CPC Conservative Party of Canada
32.1%
Majority: 2.8% Minority: 29.2%
Any party wins majority 22.1%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

LPC LPC minority
47.8%
CPC CPC minority
29.2%
LPC LPC majority
19.2%
CPC CPC majority
2.8%
Tie
0.9%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

AB
CPC 35
CPC
ATL
LPC 25
LPC
BC
LPC 19
LPC
ON
LPC 68
LPC
PR
CPC 18
CPC
QC
BQ 36
BQ
TR
LPC 2
LPC