Last updated: Jan 26, 2026 at 7:18 PM

Minority

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

171

of 343 seats • 172 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

343 total seats

Liberal Party of Canada

171 +2

Conservative Party of Canada

121 -23

Bloc Québécois

35 +13

New Democratic Party

14 +7

Green Party of Canada

2 +1

Popular Vote

General vote share

LPC 40.3%

CPC 36.8%

NDP 9.9%

BQ 7.6%

GPC 3.0%

Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

Region	LPC	CPC	BQ	NDP	GPC	Total
Alberta AB	2	34	0	1	0	37
Atlantic Canada ATL	27 +3	5 -3	0	0	0	32
British Columbia BC	20	15 -4	0	7 +4	1	43
Ontario ON	79 +9	39 -13	0	3 +3	1 +1	122
Prairies (Sask/Manitoba) PR	7	20	0	1	0	28
Quebec QC	34 -10	8 -3	35 +13	1	0	78
Territories TR	2	0	0	1	0	3
Total	171	121	35	14	2	343

Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:

Parties:

LPC

134-209 172 seats

CPC

88-159 123 seats

25-41 34 seats

NDP

6-16 12 seats

04284126168210252

172

95% CI

80% CI

50% CI

Median

Majority (172)

Party	Median	Mean	95% CI	Range
LPC	172	172.0	134–209	±38
CPC	123	123.2	88–159	±36
BQ	34	33.7	25–41	±8
NDP	12	12.1	6–16	±5
GPC	2	1.9	0–3	±2
PPC	0	0.0	-1–0	±1
OTH	0	0.0	-1–0	±1

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

Liberal Party of Canada

90.0%

Majority: 51.1% Minority: 38.9%

Conservative Party of Canada

9.6%

Majority: 0.4% Minority: 9.2%

Any party wins majority 51.5%

Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

LPC majority

51.1%

LPC minority

38.9%

CPC minority

9.2%

Tie

0.5%

CPC majority

0.4%

Full bar = Majority

Faded = Minority

Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

CPC

ATL

LPC

LPC

LPC

CPC

LPC