Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Majority
Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia projected to win
40
of 55 seats • 28 for majority
Overview
Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region
Electoral Map
Interactive map with riding-level projections
All Ridings
Search and explore all 343 constituencies
Simulator
Create your own projection
Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia 40
★
Nova Scotia New Democratic Party 12
Nova Scotia Liberal Party 2
Other 1
Popular Vote
General vote share
PCNS 49.9%
NSNDP 27.8%
NSLP 18.5%
OTH 2.1%
GPNS 1.7%
| Region | PCNS | NSNDP | NSLP | OTH | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Halifax Regional Municipality HRM | 10 -3 | 11 +3 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
Rest of Nova Scotia RNS | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 |
| Total | 40 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 55 |
Seat Probability Distribution
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Region:
Parties:
PCNS35-44 40 seats
NSNDP8-14 12 seats
NSLP0-5 2 seats
OTH0-1 1 seats
091827364554
28
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (28)
| Party | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
PCNS | 40 | 39.8 | 36–43 |
NSNDP | 12 | 11.7 | 9–14 |
NSLP | 2 | 2.5 | 1–5 |
OTH | 1 | 1.0 | 1–1 |
Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.
Win Probability
Chance of winning most seats
Progressive Conservative Party of Nova ScotiaMajority: 100.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios
Probability of each outcome
PCNS majority Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority