Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:06 PM

Majority

British Columbia New Democratic Party projected to win

of 93 seats • 47 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

93 total seats

British Columbia New Democratic Party 49

★

Conservative Party of British Columbia 42

Green Party of British Columbia 2

Popular Vote

General vote share

BCNDP 42.7%

CPBC 39.8%

GPBC 9.9%

OBC 5.6%

OTH 1.1%

Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2024

Region	BCNDP	CPBC	GPBC	Total
Metro Vancouver MV	29	12	1	42
Rest of British Columbia RBC	9 +3	27 -3	0	36
Vancouver Island VI	11 -1	3 +1	1	15
Total	49	42	2	93

Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:

Parties:

BCNDP

35-65 51 seats

CPBC

25-56 41 seats

GPBC

-1-2 1 seats

0142842567084

95% CI

80% CI

50% CI

Median

Majority (47)

Party	Median	Mean	95% CI	Range
BCNDP	51	51.0	38–64	±13
CPBC	41	40.8	28–54	±13
GPBC	1	1.2	0–2	±1
OBC	0	0.0	0–0	±0
OTH	0	0.0	0–0	±0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

British Columbia New Democratic Party

72.3%

Majority: 70.9% Minority: 1.4%

Conservative Party of British Columbia

25.8%

Majority: 24.4% Minority: 1.4%

Any party wins majority 95.2%

Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

BCNDP majority

70.9%

CPBC majority

24.4%

Tie

1.9%

BCNDP minority

1.4%

CPBC minority

1.4%

Full bar = Majority

Faded = Minority

Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

BCNDP

RBC

CPBC

BCNDP