Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:20 PM
Majority
New Democratic Party of Manitoba projected to win
40
of 57 seats • 29 for majority
Overview
Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region
Electoral Map
Interactive map with riding-level projections
All Ridings
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Simulator
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New Democratic Party of Manitoba 40
★
Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba 16
Manitoba Liberal Party 1
Popular Vote
General vote share
MBNDP 52.1%
PCMB 34.7%
MLP 9.5%
KPM 1.5%
GPM 1.5%
| Region | MBNDP | PCMB | MLP | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rest of Manitoba ROM | 10 +4 | 15 -4 | 0 | 25 |
Winnipeg WPG | 30 +2 | 1 -2 | 1 | 32 |
| Total | 40 | 16 | 1 | 57 |
Seat Probability Distribution
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Region:
Parties:
MBNDP36-43 40 seats
PCMB12-19 16 seats
MLP0-2 1 seats
091827364554
29
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (29)
| Party | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
MBNDP | 40 | 40.2 | 37–43 |
PCMB | 16 | 15.7 | 13–19 |
MLP | 1 | 1.1 | 1–2 |
Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.
Win Probability
Chance of winning most seats
New Democratic Party of ManitobaMajority: 100.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios
Probability of each outcome
MBNDP majority Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority