Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:20 PM

New Democratic Party of Manitoba
Majority

New Democratic Party of Manitoba projected to win

40
of 57 seats • 29 for majority
40
16
29 maj.
New Democratic Party of Manitoba 40 +6
Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba 16 -6
Manitoba Liberal Party 1

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

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Simulator

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57 seats · 29 for majority
New Democratic Party of Manitoba Majority (40/29)
New DemocraticParty ofManitoba40ManitobaLiberal Party1ProgressiveConservativeParty ofManitoba16

Hemicycle layout is used for universal compatibility across all parliamentary systems and does not represent the actual chamber seating arrangement.

Coalition Builder
Seat Projection

57 total seats

MBNDP
New Democratic Party of Manitoba
40 +6
★
PCMB
Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba
16 -6
MLP
Manitoba Liberal Party
1
Popular Vote

General vote share

MBNDP
New Democratic Party of Manitoba 52.1%
PCMB
Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba 34.7%
MLP
Manitoba Liberal Party 9.5%
KPM
Keystone Party of Manitoba 1.5%
GPM
Green Party of Manitoba 1.5%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2023

Geographic Levels

Choose which geographical levels to display. Regional level is ABOVE Subnational level.

Regional Summary

RegionMBNDPPCMBMLPTotal
GENERAL
40
+6
52.1%
+6.5%
16
-6
34.7%
-7.2%
1
9.5%
-1.2%
57
96.3%
Rest of Manitoba ROM
10
+4
41.5%
+5.1%
15
-4
47.6%
-8.6%
0
5.6%
+1.0%
25
94.7%
Winnipeg WPG
30
+2
59.2%
+7.4%
1
-2
26.1%
-6.3%
1
12.0%
-2.6%
32
97.3%
MB
40
+6
52.1%
+6.5%
16
-6
34.7%
-7.2%
1
9.5%
-1.2%
57
96.3%
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
MBNDP MBNDP
36-43 40 seats
PCMB PCMB
12-19 16 seats
MLP MLP
0-2 1 seats
091827364554
29
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (29)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
MBNDP
4040.236–43
PCMB
1615.712–19
MLP
11.10–2

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown. Read the full methodology →

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

MBNDP New Democratic Party of Manitoba
100.0%
Majority: 100.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

MBNDP MBNDP majority
100.0%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

Rest of Manitoba
ROM
PCMB 15
PCMB
Winnipeg
WPG
MBNDP 30
MBNDP