Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Majority
New Brunswick Liberal Party projected to win
33
of 49 seats • 25 for majority
Overview
Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region
Electoral Map
Interactive map with riding-level projections
All Ridings
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Simulator
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New Brunswick Liberal Party 33
★
Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 14
Green Party of New Brunswick 2
Popular Vote
General vote share
NBLP 50.3%
PCNB 33.6%
GPNB 11.3%
NBNDP 3.5%
OTH 1.4%
| Region | NBLP | PCNB | GPNB | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Moncton--Kent MK | 11 +1 | 0 -1 | 1 | 12 |
North New Brunswick NNB | 11 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
South New Brunswick SNB | 11 +1 | 13 -1 | 1 | 25 |
| Total | 33 | 14 | 2 | 49 |
Seat Probability Distribution
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Region:
Parties:
NBLP27-37 33 seats
PCNB10-19 15 seats
GPNB0-2 2 seats
081624324048
25
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (25)
| Party | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
NBLP | 33 | 32.7 | 29–37 |
PCNB | 15 | 14.7 | 11–19 |
GPNB | 2 | 1.6 | 1–2 |
Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.
Win Probability
Chance of winning most seats
New Brunswick Liberal PartyMajority: 100.0% Minority: 0.0%
Progressive Conservative Party of New BrunswickMajority: 0.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios
Probability of each outcome
NBLP majority NBLP minority Tie
0.0% PCNB majority PCNB minority Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority