2025 Canadian Federal Election
86.0% seats called 18 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LPC | 167 | 169 | −2 |
| CPC | 137 | 144 | −7 |
| BQ | 24 | 22 | +2 |
| NDP | 13 | 7 | +6 |
| GRN | 2 | 1 | +1 |
Track record
Past accuracy
Every projection Poliwave has shipped, next to the actual result. No curation, no cherry-picking. Misses appear with the same prominence as hits.
89.5%
Mean seat-winner accuracy across all elections
6
Elections tracked
98.0%
Best result: 2024 Nova Scotia General Election
2025 Canadian federal election
Closest absolute seat-count projection in Canada
On the 2025 Canadian federal election, Poliwave produced the most accurate absolute seat-count projection among Canadian electoral forecasters: the smallest aggregate gap between projected and actual seats across the top four parties.
On constituency-level accuracy (the share of seats whose winner the model correctly identified), Poliwave landed within one percentage point of the long-established national benchmark, despite being substantially newer and built by a small independent group rather than an institutional team. The full election-by-election breakdown is below.
That projection was produced with the Excel model that preceded this website, as were all the results listed below.
Election by election most recent first
2025 Ontario General Election
85.0% seats called 24 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PC | 87 | 80 | +7 |
| NDP | 15 | 27 | −12 |
| LIB | 19 | 14 | +5 |
| GRN | 2 | 2 | exact |
| OTH | 1 | 1 | exact |
2024 Nova Scotia General Election
98.0% seats called 2 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PC | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| NDP | 8 | 9 | −1 |
| LIB | 2 | 2 | exact |
| OTH | 1 | 1 | exact |
2024 Saskatchewan General Election
92.0% seats called 10 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SKP | 29 | 34 | −5 |
| NDP | 32 | 27 | +5 |
2024 New Brunswick General Election
90.0% seats called 10 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 26 | 31 | −5 |
| PC | 21 | 16 | +5 |
| GRN | 2 | 2 | exact |
2024 BC General Election
86.0% seats called 4 total seat gap
| Party | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | 45 | 47 | −2 |
| CON | 46 | 44 | +2 |
| GRN | 2 | 2 | exact |
Accuracy is the share of seats whose winner the model identified correctly. The total seat gap is the sum of the absolute differences between projected and actual seats across every party listed, which is the figure the headline claim above refers to. Poliwave scores seat projections rather than vote-share predictions. How the projections are produced is documented on the methodology page.