Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 7:22 PM

Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
Minority

Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador projected to win

20
of 40 seats • 21 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

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Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

40 total seats

PCNL
Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador 20
LPNL
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador 16
OTH
Other 2
NLNDP
Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party 2
Popular Vote

General vote share

PCNL
PCNL 44.0%
LPNL
LPNL 43.9%
NLNDP
NLNDP 8.7%
OTH
OTH 3.4%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

RegionPCNLLPNLOTHNLNDPTotal
Avalon Peninsula APEN
6
9
1
2
18
East/Central NL ECNL
7 -1
4 +1
0
0
11
Labrador/West NL LWNL
7
3
1
0
11
Total20162240
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
PCNL PCNL
13-23 19 seats
LPNL LPNL
12-22 17 seats
OTH OTH
1-2 2 seats
NLNDP NLNDP
0-2 2 seats
051015202530
21
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (21)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
PCNL
1919.115–23
LPNL
1717.013–21
OTH
22.02–2
NLNDP
21.91–2

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

PCNL Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
61.4%
Majority: 30.4% Minority: 31.1%
LPNL Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador
26.9%
Majority: 9.0% Minority: 17.9%
Any party wins majority 39.3%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

PCNL PCNL minority
31.1%
PCNL PCNL majority
30.4%
LPNL LPNL minority
17.9%
Tie
11.7%
LPNL LPNL majority
9.0%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

APEN
LPNL 9
LPNL
ECNL
PCNL 7
PCNL
LWNL
PCNL 7
PCNL