Last updated: May 17, 2026 at 12:40 AM

Reform UK
Majority

Reform UK projected to win

350
of 650 seats • 326 for majority
350
76
55
50
47
326 maj.
Reform UK 350 +345
Liberal Democrats 76 +4
Green Party of England and Wales 55 +51
Labour Party 50 -361
Scottish National Party 47 +38
Conservative and Unionist Party 36 -85
Other (minor parties bucket) 10 +3

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

650 seats · 326 for majority
Reform UK Majority (350/326)
Reform UK350LiberalDemocrats76Green Party ofEngland andWales55Labour Party50ScottishNational Party47Conservativeand UnionistParty36Other (minorpartiesbucket)10Plaid Cymru8Sinn Féin6DemocraticUnionist Party5SocialDemocratic andLabour Party2UlsterUnionist Party2RestoreBritain1Alliance Partyof NorthernIreland1TraditionalUnionist Voice1

Hemicycle layout is used for universal compatibility across all parliamentary systems and does not represent the actual chamber seating arrangement.

Coalition Builder
Seat Projection

650 total seats

REF
Reform UK
350 +345
★
LD
Liberal Democrats
76 +4
GRN
Green Party of England and Wales
55 +51
LAB
Labour Party
50 -361
SNP
Scottish National Party
47 +38
Popular Vote

General vote share

REF
Reform UK 24.8%
CON
Conservative and Unionist Party 17.2%
LAB
Labour Party 16.8%
GRN
Green Party of England and Wales 15.1%
LD
Liberal Democrats 12.7%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2024

Main

11 regions · 1014 parties

Geographic Levels

Choose which geographical levels to display. Regional level is ABOVE Subnational level.

Main

RegionLABCONLDSNPREFGRNPCRESTotal
GENERAL
50
-361
16.8%
-16.9%
36
-85
17.2%
-6.5%
76
+4
12.7%
+0.5%
47
+38
2.5%
+0.0%
350
+345
24.8%
+10.5%
55
+51
15.1%
+8.3%
8
+4
1.1%
+0.4%
1
+1
2.5%
+2.5%
623
-3
92.8%
East of England EE
1
-26
14.7%
-14.7%
2
-21
21.0%
-9.6%
7
13.8%
+0.6%
0
0.0%
47
+44
29.2%
+11.7%
3
+2
14.6%
+7.7%
0
0.0%
1
+1
2.9%
+2.9%
61
96.1%
East Midlands EM
1
-28
17.5%
-17.8%
4
-11
20.2%
-9.2%
1
+1
8.8%
+2.4%
0
0.0%
40
+38
30.6%
+11.7%
0
14.8%
+8.6%
0
0.0%
0
3.1%
+3.1%
46
95.1%
London LON
22
-37
22.6%
-20.3%
10
+1
16.9%
-3.6%
6
12.8%
+1.7%
0
0.0%
11
+11
17.6%
+9.0%
24
+24
22.3%
+12.2%
0
0.0%
0
0.1%
+0.1%
73
-1
92.3%
North East NE
1
-25
21.1%
-24.3%
1
15.5%
-4.7%
0
8.2%
+2.3%
0
0.0%
25
+25
31.9%
+12.0%
0
15.3%
+9.3%
0
0.0%
0
3.7%
+3.7%
27
95.7%
North West NW
13
-52
21.6%
-22.4%
3
15.1%
-3.7%
3
9.9%
+2.0%
0
0.0%
44
+44
27.2%
+10.7%
8
+8
16.9%
+9.9%
0
0.0%
0
2.9%
+2.9%
71
93.6%
Scotland SCT
3
-34
19.1%
-16.2%
2
-3
10.2%
-2.5%
5
-1
9.4%
-0.3%
47
+38
30.3%
+0.3%
0
13.0%
+6.0%
0
11.4%
+7.6%
0
0.0%
0
3.6%
+3.6%
57
97.0%
South East SE
0
-36
12.6%
-12.0%
6
-24
21.4%
-9.2%
28
+4
20.4%
-1.4%
0
0.0%
51
+51
26.3%
+12.3%
5
+4
14.1%
+7.3%
0
0.0%
0
2.1%
+2.1%
90
-1
97.0%
South West SW
2
-22
12.5%
-12.0%
2
-9
19.8%
-8.4%
21
-1
21.5%
-3.1%
0
0.0%
27
+27
26.0%
+12.2%
6
+5
14.6%
+7.2%
0
0.0%
0
3.1%
+3.1%
58
97.5%
Wales WLS
1
-26
15.5%
-21.5%
1
+1
12.3%
-5.9%
1
6.6%
+0.1%
0
0.0%
20
+20
23.8%
+6.9%
1
+1
10.4%
+5.8%
8
+4
24.6%
+9.8%
0
3.2%
+3.2%
32
96.5%
West Midlands WM
3
-35
17.0%
-16.9%
2
-13
19.2%
-8.4%
2
10.5%
+1.7%
0
0.0%
46
+46
30.2%
+12.1%
2
+1
14.9%
+8.3%
0
0.0%
0
2.5%
+2.5%
55
-1
94.3%
Yorkshire and The Humber YH
3
-40
19.1%
-21.8%
3
-6
17.0%
-5.8%
2
+1
9.1%
+2.0%
0
0.0%
39
+39
29.1%
+12.4%
6
+6
16.9%
+9.3%
0
0.0%
0
3.1%
+3.1%
53
94.3%

Northern Ireland

1 region · 7 parties

Northern Ireland

RegionSFDUPSDLPAPNIUUPTUVTotal
Northern Ireland NI
6
-1
24.1%
-3.0%
5
21.0%
-1.1%
2
12.0%
+0.9%
1
11.9%
-3.1%
2
+1
12.0%
-0.2%
1
11.0%
+4.8%
17
92.0%
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
REF REF
170-409 309 seats
LD LD
47-96 72 seats
GRN GRN
24-124 58 seats
LAB LAB
13-178 64 seats
SNP SNP
21-49 40 seats
CON CON
9-167 50 seats
OTH OTH
4-21 11 seats
PC PC
6-17 10 seats
SF SF
3-8 6 seats
DUP DUP
1-7 4 seats
SDLP SDLP
1-3 2 seats
UUP UUP
0-3 2 seats
RES RES
-1-1 1 seats
APNI APNI
-1-3 1 seats
TUV TUV
0-2 1 seats
YP YP
-1-1 0 seats
081162243324405486
326
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (326)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
REF
309303.6170–409
LD
7272.147–96
GRN
5862.524–124
LAB
6472.713–178
SNP
4038.821–49
CON
5059.99–167
OTH
1111.74–21
PC
1010.56–17
SF
66.13–8
DUP
44.31–7
SDLP
22.21–3
UUP
22.10–3
RES
10.9-1–1
APNI
11.2-1–3
TUV
11.00–2
YP
00.3-1–1

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown. Read the full methodology →

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

REF Reform UK
96.8%
Majority: 38.9% Minority: 57.9%
CON Conservative and Unionist Party
1.6%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 1.6%
LAB Labour Party
1.4%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 1.4%
GRN Green Party of England and Wales
0.1%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 0.1%
LD Liberal Democrats
0.0%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 39.0%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

REF REF minority
57.9%
REF REF majority
38.9%
CON CON minority
1.6%
LAB LAB minority
1.4%
GRN GRN minority
0.1%
Tie
0.1%
LAB LAB majority
0.0%
LD LD minority
0.0%
CON CON majority
0.0%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

East of England
EE
REF 47
REF
East Midlands
EM
REF 40
REF
London
LON
GRN 24
GRN
North East
NE
REF 25
REF
Northern Ireland
NI
SF 6
SF
North West
NW
REF 44
REF
Scotland
SCT
SNP 47
SNP