Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 5:18 PM

Saskatchewan Party
Majority

Saskatchewan Party projected to win

35
of 61 seats • 31 for majority

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

Search and explore all 343 constituencies

Simulator

Create your own projection

Seat Projection

61 total seats

SP
Saskatchewan Party 35
★
SKNDP
Saskatchewan New Democratic Party 26
Popular Vote

General vote share

SP
SP 55.6%
SKNDP
SKNDP 39.2%
SUP
SUP 2.0%
SGP
SGP 1.3%
PCSK
PCSK 0.8%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2024

RegionSPSKNDPTotal
Regina REG
0
12
12
Rest of Saskatchewan ROS
33
2
35
Saskatoon SKT
2 +1
12 -1
14
Total352661
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
Parties:
SP SP
31-43 37 seats
SKNDP SKNDP
17-29 24 seats
10172431384552
31
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (31)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
SP
3736.833–42
SKNDP
2424.219–28

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

SP Saskatchewan Party
99.8%
Majority: 99.8% Minority: 0.0%
SKNDP Saskatchewan New Democratic Party
0.2%
Majority: 0.2% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 100.0%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

SP SP majority
99.8%
SKNDP SKNDP majority
0.2%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

REG
SKNDP 12
SKNDP
ROS
SP 33
SP
SKT
SKNDP 12
SKNDP