Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM
Majority
Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island projected to win
15
of 27 seats • 14 for majority
Overview
Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region
Electoral Map
Interactive map with riding-level projections
All Ridings
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Simulator
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Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island
15 -7
★
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party
10 +7
Green Party of Prince Edward Island
2
Popular Vote
General vote share
PCPEI 40.6%
PEILP 37.8%
GPPEI 17.4%
NDPPEI 3.0%
OTH 1.2%
| Region | PCPEI | PEILP | GPPEI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kings County KCT | 4 -1 | 1 +1 | 0 | 5 |
Prince County PCT | 5 -2 | 4 +2 | 0 | 9 |
Queens County QCT | 6 -4 | 5 +4 | 2 | 13 |
| Total | 15 | 10 | 2 | 27 |
Seat Probability Distribution
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Region:
Parties:
PCPEI8-18 13 seats
PEILP5-15 11 seats
GPPEI-1-6 3 seats
0510152025
14
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (14)
| Party | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
PCPEI | 13 | 13.2 | 8–18 |
PEILP | 11 | 10.7 | 5–15 |
GPPEI | 3 | 2.7 | -1–6 |
NDPPEI | 0 | 0.3 | -1–1 |
OTH | 0 | 0.2 | -1–1 |
Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown.
Win Probability
Chance of winning most seats
Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward IslandMajority: 45.5% Minority: 21.3%
Prince Edward Island Liberal PartyMajority: 12.8% Minority: 13.1%
Green Party of Prince Edward IslandMajority: 0.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 58.3%
Election Scenarios
Probability of each outcome
PCPEI majority PCPEI minority PEILP minority PEILP majority Tie
7.4% GPPEI minority Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority