Advanced Analytics

Poliwave's Methodology

Understanding our sophisticated approach to electoral projections

Core Projection Formula

Poliwave employs a multi-faceted approach to electoral projections, integrating proportional swing models, demographic adjustments, and vote transfer dynamics. Below is the core projection formula:

P = (R \cdot (\frac{P_{c}}{B_{c}} \cdot S_{1} + (P_{c} - B_{c}) \cdot S_{2})) + (D + T)

The values are adjusted to ensure consistency with the overall polling data and normalized to a total of 100%.

Variable Definitions:

$P$ : Projected vote share for a party in a riding.
$R$ : Historical riding results for the party.
$P_{c}$ : Current polling percentage for the party in the province.
$B_{c}$ : Baseline general election result for the party.
$S_{1}$ : Scaling factor for proportional swing.
$S_{2}$ : Scaling factor for uniform swing.
$D$ : Demographic adjustment factor, reflecting local socioeconomic data.
$T$ : Transfer matrix capturing inter-party vote flows.

Proportional Swing Modeling

Our model accounts for both proportional and uniform swing effects, allowing for more nuanced predictions that reflect regional voting patterns and party-specific dynamics.

Demographic Integration

Local demographic factors are incorporated through the D variable, ensuring projections reflect the unique socioeconomic characteristics of each riding.