Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM

PCPEI
PEI • QCT • RQCT

Stanhope-Marshfield

Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island projected to win

Margin
+9.2%
Win Probability
59.6%
Voters (2023)
2,775

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

PCPEI PCPEI
59.6%
PEILP PEILP
30.8%
NDPPEI NDPPEI
4.6%
GPPEI GPPEI
3.9%
OTH OTH
1.1%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

PCPEI PCPEI -37.5
42.1% ±31.6
95% CI: 23.4% – 40.1% 2023: 79.6%
PEILP PEILP +33.0
33.0% ±30.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 33.1%
NDPPEI NDPPEI -7.7
12.7% ±21.3
95% CI: 7.4% – 27.4% 2023: 20.4%
GPPEI GPPEI +11.5
11.5% ±20.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 33.4%
OTH OTH +0.8
0.8% ±9.6
95% CI: 9.3% – 21.2%

Uncertainty factor: 4.00× (High uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2023 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+59.2%
PCPEI
79.6%
NDPPEI
20.4%

2019 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+3.2%
PCPEI
39.5%
PEILP
36.4%
GPPEI
22.7%
NDPPEI
1.4%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 22