Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM

PCPEI
PEI • KCT • Null

Souris-Elmira

Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island projected to win

Margin
+3.5%
Win Probability
50.6%
Voters (2023)
2,876

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

PCPEI PCPEI
50.6%
PEILP PEILP
39.3%
GPPEI GPPEI
8.6%
OTH OTH
0.7%
NDPPEI NDPPEI
0.7%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

PCPEI PCPEI -14.3
41.0% ±31.1
95% CI: 22.1% – 62.2% 2023: 55.4%
PEILP PEILP +20.9
37.6% ±30.6
95% CI: 25.7% – 43.3% 2023: 16.7%
GPPEI GPPEI -6.0
20.4% ±25.5
95% CI: 0.0% – 22.6% 2023: 26.3%
OTH OTH
0.6% ±9.5
95% CI: 12.1% – 23.0% 2023: 0.6%

Uncertainty factor: 3.96× (High uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2023 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+29.1%
PCPEI
55.4%
GPPEI
26.3%
PEILP
16.7%
NDPPEI
1.0%

2019 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+16.1%
PCPEI
44.7%
PEILP
28.6%
GPPEI
26.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 21