Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM

PCPEI
PEI • QCT • RQCT

Rustico-Emerald

Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island projected to win

Margin
+8.7%
Win Probability
63.3%
Voters (2023)
3,183

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

PCPEI PCPEI
63.3%
PEILP PEILP
33.0%
GPPEI GPPEI
2.6%
NDPPEI NDPPEI
0.6%
OTH OTH
0.5%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

PCPEI PCPEI -16.4
46.1% ±30.1
95% CI: 28.0% – 55.6% 2023: 62.5%
PEILP PEILP +20.7
37.4% ±29.2
95% CI: 16.4% – 56.0% 2023: 16.7%
GPPEI GPPEI -4.4
13.1% ±20.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 27.9% 2023: 17.6%
NDPPEI NDPPEI -0.9
2.3% ±9.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 7.3% 2023: 3.2%
OTH OTH +1.0
1.0% ±9.0
95% CI: 0.0% – 18.6%

Uncertainty factor: 3.76× (High uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2023 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+45.0%
PCPEI
62.5%
GPPEI
17.6%
PEILP
16.7%
NDPPEI
3.2%

2019 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+30.6%
PCPEI
57.5%
GPPEI
26.9%
PEILP
14.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 20