Last updated: Jan 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM

PCPEI
PEI • KCT • Null

Montague-Kilmuir

Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island projected to win

Margin
+28.1%
Win Probability
87.0%
Voters (2023)
2,573

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

PCPEI PCPEI
87.0%
PEILP PEILP
10.6%
GPPEI GPPEI
1.7%
OTH OTH
0.4%
NDPPEI NDPPEI
0.4%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

PCPEI PCPEI -14.8
57.0% ±31.7
95% CI: 43.5% – 69.3% 2023: 71.8%
PEILP PEILP +18.3
28.9% ±29.0
95% CI: 0.0% – 33.5% 2023: 10.5%
GPPEI GPPEI -3.0
11.7% ±20.6
95% CI: 3.0% – 25.1% 2023: 14.7%
OTH OTH +0.1
1.6% ±9.6
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.6% 2023: 1.5%
NDPPEI NDPPEI -0.6
0.9% ±9.6
95% CI: 0.0% – 17.2% 2023: 1.5%

Uncertainty factor: 4.00× (High uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2023 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+57.1%
PCPEI
71.8%
GPPEI
14.7%
PEILP
10.5%
NDPPEI
1.5%
OTH
1.5%

2019 Election

PCPEI
PCPEI
+19.9%
PCPEI
46.4%
PEILP
26.5%
GPPEI
22.8%
NDPPEI
4.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 16