Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

CPC
BC • BC • RBC

Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+4.0%
Win Probability
71.4%
Voters (2025)
67,141

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

CPC CPC
71.4%
LPC LPC
28.6%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

CPC CPC -3.3
47.1% ±9.7
95% CI: 36.6% – 48.7% 2025: 50.4%
LPC LPC +0.3
43.1% ±9.6
95% CI: 38.1% – 44.1% 2025: 42.9%
NDP NDP +0.2
5.3% ±4.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 10.0% 2025: 5.1%
GPC GPC +1.5
3.2% ±3.4
95% CI: 2.0% – 11.5% 2025: 1.6%
PPC PPC +0.8
0.8% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 1.9%
OTH OTH +0.5
0.5% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.1%

Uncertainty factor: 0.94× (Low uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

CPC
CPC
+7.6%
CPC
50.4%
LPC
42.8%
NDP
5.1%
GPC
1.6%

2021 Election

CPC
CPC
+21.8%
CPC
43.7%
NDP
21.9%
LPC
19.6%
PPC
9.6%
GPC
5.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 59041