Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

LPC
BC • BC • MV

Surrey Centre

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+8.0%
Win Probability
83.7%
Voters (2025)
41,454

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
83.7%
CPC CPC
16.3%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC +0.9
48.9% ±11.3
95% CI: 36.3% – 44.6% 2025: 48.0%
CPC CPC -2.3
40.9% ±11.1
95% CI: 30.0% – 46.7% 2025: 43.2%
NDP NDP +0.5
7.2% ±5.8
95% CI: 0.0% – 11.1% 2025: 6.8%
GPC GPC +1.2
2.2% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.2% – 15.2% 2025: 0.9%

Uncertainty factor: 1.19× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+4.8%
LPC
48.0%
CPC
43.2%
NDP
6.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 59033