Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

LPC
ON • ON • TOR

Scarborough Centre-Don Valley East

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+22.1%
Win Probability
99.8%
Voters (2025)
48,088

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
99.8%
CPC CPC
0.2%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -1.9
55.4% ±10.7
95% CI: 41.6% – 64.8% 2025: 57.3%
CPC CPC -4.8
33.3% ±10.1
95% CI: 19.4% – 34.0% 2025: 38.1%
NDP NDP +4.0
7.3% ±5.6
95% CI: 3.7% – 14.0% 2025: 3.3%
GPC GPC +2.0
2.0% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 11.4%
PPC PPC +0.4
1.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 11.6% 2025: 1.4%

Uncertainty factor: 1.11× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+19.2%
LPC
57.3%
CPC
38.1%
NDP
3.3%
PPC
1.4%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+30.8%
LPC
56.1%
CPC
25.3%
NDP
13.9%
PPC
4.3%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 35093