Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

LPC
ON • ON • HMT

Hamilton Mountain

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+7.1%
Win Probability
84.0%
Voters (2025)
59,893

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
84.0%
CPC CPC
16.0%
NDP NDP
0.0%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -4.0
41.6% ±9.8
95% CI: 35.7% – 48.0% 2025: 45.6%
CPC CPC -7.0
34.5% ±9.5
95% CI: 28.1% – 37.6% 2025: 41.5%
NDP NDP +7.4
19.2% ±7.9
95% CI: 12.3% – 23.3% 2025: 11.8%
GPC GPC +2.6
2.6% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 12.7%
PPC PPC +1.0
1.8% ±3.0
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.6% 2025: 0.8%

Uncertainty factor: 0.99× (Low uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+4.1%
LPC
45.6%
CPC
41.5%
NDP
11.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 35038