Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

LPC
ON • ON • HTN

Burlington North-Milton West

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+12.0%
Win Probability
95.9%
Voters (2025)
70,441

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
95.9%
CPC CPC
4.1%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -1.5
51.2% ±9.5
95% CI: 39.9% – 50.2% 2025: 52.8%
CPC CPC -5.0
39.3% ±9.3
95% CI: 30.7% – 42.3% 2025: 44.3%
NDP NDP +3.3
5.4% ±4.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 9.8% 2025: 2.1%
GPC GPC +1.7
1.7% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.6%
PPC PPC +0.7
1.6% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 8.1% 2025: 0.9%
OTH OTH +0.8
0.8% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 3.7%

Uncertainty factor: 0.92× (Low uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+8.5%
LPC
52.7%
CPC
44.3%
NDP
2.1%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+11.0%
LPC
47.7%
CPC
36.7%
NDP
9.6%
PPC
4.0%
GPC
1.9%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 35018