Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

CPC
QC • QC • ECQ

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+18.4%
Win Probability
99.5%
Voters (2025)
64,941

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

CPC CPC
99.5%
LPC LPC
0.5%
BQ BQ
0.1%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

CPC CPC -4.4
45.2% ±9.7
95% CI: 37.3% – 47.8% 2025: 49.6%
LPC LPC -2.3
26.8% ±8.6
95% CI: 19.8% – 26.5% 2025: 29.1%
BQ BQ +4.3
22.2% ±8.1
95% CI: 16.9% – 23.8% 2025: 17.9%
NDP NDP +1.4
3.0% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.4% – 9.3% 2025: 1.6%
GPC GPC +0.2
1.3% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 10.2% 2025: 1.1%
OTH OTH +1.2
1.2% ±2.9
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.5%

Uncertainty factor: 0.95× (Low uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

CPC
CPC
+20.5%
CPC
49.6%
LPC
29.0%
BQ
17.9%
NDP
1.6%
GPC
1.1%

2021 Election

CPC
CPC
+28.6%
CPC
52.4%
BQ
23.8%
LPC
15.1%
NDP
4.7%
PPC
2.4%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 24058