Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 4:14 PM

LPC
QC • QC • ONQ

Hull-Aylmer

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+43.5%
Win Probability
100.0%
Voters (2025)
51,487

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
100.0%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -3.0
59.1% ±10.3
95% CI: 47.4% – 65.4% 2025: 62.1%
BQ BQ +3.5
15.6% ±7.6
95% CI: 9.7% – 12.5% 2025: 12.1%
CPC CPC -1.8
15.1% ±7.5
95% CI: 10.9% – 18.7% 2025: 16.9%
NDP NDP +1.7
7.2% ±5.4
95% CI: 1.7% – 13.4% 2025: 5.5%
GPC GPC
2.2% ±3.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 9.2% 2025: 2.2%

Uncertainty factor: 1.07× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+45.2%
LPC
62.1%
CPC
16.9%
BQ
12.1%
NDP
5.5%
GPC
2.2%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+36.4%
LPC
52.5%
BQ
16.1%
NDP
12.8%
CPC
10.8%
PPC
3.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 24028