Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NB • ATL • UNB

Fredericton-Oromocto

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+26.7%
Win Probability
100.0%
Voters (2021)
50,169

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
100.0%
CPC CPC
0.0%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -4.5
56.7% ±10.5
95% CI: 54.6% – 61.6% 2021: 61.3%
CPC CPC -2.2
30.1% ±9.7
95% CI: 23.9% – 32.8% 2021: 32.3%
NDP NDP +5.2
7.0% ±5.4
95% CI: 6.8% – 10.7% 2021: 1.8%
GPC GPC +0.7
3.9% ±4.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.3% 2021: 3.1%
OTH OTH +0.5
1.5% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 2.7% 2021: 1.1%
PPC PPC +0.3
0.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 0.8% 2021: 0.4%

Uncertainty factor: 1.08× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+29.0%
LPC
61.3%
CPC
32.3%
GPC
3.1%
NDP
1.8%
OTH
1.1%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+4.3%
LPC
38.1%
CPC
33.9%
NDP
13.2%
GPC
13.0%
OTH
1.5%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 13003