Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NS • ATL • RNS

South Shore-St. Margarets

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+11.1%
Win Probability
92.7%
Voters (2021)
50,711

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
92.7%
CPC CPC
7.3%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -8.0
46.9% ±10.5
95% CI: 39.8% – 55.9% 2021: 54.9%
CPC CPC -5.4
35.7% ±10.1
95% CI: 29.4% – 38.6% 2021: 41.1%
NDP NDP +11.1
11.1% ±6.6
95% CI: 4.0% – 13.0%
GPC GPC +1.6
3.2% ±3.7
95% CI: 0.0% – 13.9% 2021: 1.6%
PPC PPC +0.4
1.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.2% 2021: 1.4%
OTH OTH +0.4
1.4% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.0% 2021: 1.0%

Uncertainty factor: 1.08× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+13.7%
LPC
54.9%
CPC
41.1%
GPC
1.6%
PPC
1.4%

2021 Election

CPC
CPC
+7.9%
CPC
43.5%
LPC
35.5%
NDP
18.2%
GPC
2.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 12010