Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NS • ATL • RNS

Cumberland-Colchester

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+1.1%
Win Probability
55.5%
Voters (2021)
49,530

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
55.5%
CPC CPC
44.5%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -4.8
43.5% ±10.5
95% CI: 36.3% – 43.9% 2021: 48.3%
CPC CPC -3.5
42.3% ±10.5
95% CI: 35.8% – 41.7% 2021: 45.8%
NDP NDP +6.0
9.8% ±6.3
95% CI: 7.4% – 17.7% 2021: 3.8%
GPC GPC +1.1
2.5% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 7.8% 2021: 1.4%
PPC PPC +0.5
1.1% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.9% 2021: 0.7%
OTH OTH +0.8
0.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.9%

Uncertainty factor: 1.09× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+2.5%
LPC
48.3%
CPC
45.8%
NDP
3.8%
GPC
1.4%

2021 Election

CPC
CPC
+11.8%
CPC
46.0%
LPC
34.2%
NDP
12.3%
PPC
4.2%
GPC
2.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 12004