Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NS • ATL • RNS

Central Nova

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+7.5%
Win Probability
83.9%
Voters (2021)
50,213

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
83.9%
CPC CPC
16.1%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -4.5
47.4% ±10.6
95% CI: 43.8% – 48.9% 2021: 51.9%
CPC CPC -2.9
39.9% ±10.3
95% CI: 35.0% – 44.4% 2021: 42.8%
NDP NDP +5.6
8.9% ±6.0
95% CI: 4.1% – 13.6% 2021: 3.3%
GPC GPC +1.1
2.1% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.3% 2021: 0.9%
PPC PPC +0.3
1.0% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 1.2% 2021: 0.7%
OTH OTH +0.3
0.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.2% 2021: 0.5%

Uncertainty factor: 1.08× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+9.2%
LPC
51.9%
CPC
42.7%
NDP
3.3%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+11.3%
LPC
44.3%
CPC
33.0%
NDP
16.1%
PPC
4.0%
GPC
1.5%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 12003