Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
PEI • ATL • PEI

Cardigan

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+17.7%
Win Probability
96.7%
Voters (2021)
25,261

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
96.7%
CPC CPC
3.3%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -4.4
52.6% ±13.5
95% CI: 41.4% – 56.6% 2021: 57.0%
CPC CPC -2.4
35.0% ±12.9
95% CI: 25.0% – 37.9% 2021: 37.4%
NDP NDP +5.0
7.0% ±6.9
95% CI: 6.5% – 10.6% 2021: 2.0%
GPC GPC +1.0
2.3% ±4.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 12.6% 2021: 1.3%
OTH OTH +0.6
2.2% ±4.1
95% CI: 1.2% – 10.8% 2021: 1.6%
PPC PPC +0.1
0.9% ±4.1
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.5% 2021: 0.7%

Uncertainty factor: 1.53× (High uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+19.6%
LPC
57.0%
CPC
37.4%
NDP
2.0%
OTH
1.6%
GPC
1.3%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+19.6%
LPC
50.6%
CPC
30.9%
NDP
9.8%
GPC
4.8%
PPC
3.3%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 11001