Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

CPC
NL • ATL • RNL

Terra Nova-The Peninsulas

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+1.2%
Win Probability
55.7%
Voters (2021)
40,875

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

CPC CPC
55.7%
LPC LPC
44.3%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

CPC CPC -4.9
43.1% ±11.2
95% CI: 36.6% – 47.5% 2021: 48.0%
LPC LPC -6.0
41.9% ±11.2
95% CI: 39.3% – 46.6% 2021: 47.9%
NDP NDP +6.3
10.4% ±6.9
95% CI: 5.1% – 14.7% 2021: 4.1%
GPC GPC +1.9
1.9% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 4.8%
PPC PPC +1.6
1.6% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 1.4%
OTH OTH +1.1
1.1% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 2.5%

Uncertainty factor: 1.20× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

CPC
CPC
+0.0%
CPC
48.0%
LPC
47.9%
NDP
4.1%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+6.8%
LPC
47.3%
CPC
40.5%
NDP
8.3%
PPC
4.0%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 10007