Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

CPC
NL • ATL • RNL

Long Range Mountains

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+8.3%
Win Probability
85.7%
Voters (2021)
46,143

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

CPC CPC
85.7%
LPC LPC
14.3%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

CPC CPC -4.0
46.4% ±10.8
95% CI: 34.1% – 49.3% 2021: 50.4%
LPC LPC -4.7
38.0% ±10.6
95% CI: 33.8% – 42.7% 2021: 42.8%
NDP NDP +6.1
10.5% ±6.7
95% CI: 9.8% – 20.1% 2021: 4.4%
OTH OTH +0.5
1.9% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.0% 2021: 1.4%
GPC GPC +1.8
1.8% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 3.5%
PPC PPC +0.3
1.5% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 9.5% 2021: 1.2%

Uncertainty factor: 1.13× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

CPC
CPC
+7.6%
CPC
50.3%
LPC
42.7%
NDP
4.4%
OTH
1.4%
PPC
1.2%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+5.0%
LPC
44.4%
CPC
39.4%
NDP
11.9%
PPC
4.3%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 10005