Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

CPC
NL • ATL • RNL

Central Newfoundland

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+11.0%
Win Probability
91.3%
Voters (2021)
40,636

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

CPC CPC
91.3%
LPC LPC
8.7%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

CPC CPC -4.6
49.5% ±11.3
95% CI: 43.7% – 59.9% 2021: 54.1%
LPC LPC -5.1
38.5% ±11.0
95% CI: 30.5% – 41.1% 2021: 43.5%
NDP NDP +5.3
7.6% ±6.0
95% CI: 0.0% – 19.6% 2021: 2.4%
GPC GPC +1.8
1.8% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 7.9%
PPC PPC +1.4
1.4% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.2%
OTH OTH +1.1
1.1% ±3.4
95% CI: 0.0% – 5.7%

Uncertainty factor: 1.20× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

CPC
CPC
+10.5%
CPC
54.1%
LPC
43.5%
NDP
2.4%

2021 Election

CPC
CPC
+0.9%
CPC
46.9%
LPC
46.0%
NDP
7.1%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 10003