Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NL • ATL • STJ

Cape Spear

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+38.3%
Win Probability
100.0%
Voters (2021)
45,988

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
100.0%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -7.0
61.2% ±10.6
95% CI: 50.3% – 64.4% 2021: 68.3%
CPC CPC -2.8
22.9% ±9.1
95% CI: 13.0% – 21.9% 2021: 25.8%
NDP NDP +7.1
12.4% ±7.2
95% CI: 8.1% – 20.6% 2021: 5.3%
GPC GPC +1.6
1.9% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 8.2% 2021: 0.3%
PPC PPC +0.8
0.8% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 0.0%
OTH OTH +0.3
0.7% ±3.3
95% CI: 0.0% – 0.0% 2021: 0.4%

Uncertainty factor: 1.13× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+42.5%
LPC
68.3%
CPC
25.8%
NDP
5.3%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+31.4%
LPC
54.7%
NDP
23.3%
CPC
20.3%
PPC
1.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 10002