Last updated: Jan 13, 2026 at 6:24 PM

LPC
NL • ATL • STJ

Avalon

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

Margin
+19.7%
Win Probability
99.5%
Voters (2021)
47,030

Win Probability

Chance of winning this riding

LPC LPC
99.5%
CPC CPC
0.5%

Projected Vote Share

With margin of error (±MoE) • n=70

LPC LPC -6.5
52.2% ±10.8
95% CI: 36.7% – 52.0% 2021: 58.6%
CPC CPC -3.6
32.4% ±10.1
95% CI: 22.9% – 39.5% 2021: 36.0%
NDP NDP +6.7
11.6% ±6.9
95% CI: 8.5% – 20.8% 2021: 4.9%
GPC GPC +2.0
2.0% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 11.1%
PPC PPC +1.0
1.0% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 6.1%
OTH OTH +0.3
0.8% ±3.2
95% CI: 0.0% – 3.0% 2021: 0.5%

Uncertainty factor: 1.12× (Moderate uncertainty)

Historical Results

Past election outcomes

2025 Election

LPC
LPC
+22.6%
LPC
58.6%
CPC
36.0%
NDP
4.9%

2021 Election

LPC
LPC
+17.9%
LPC
51.0%
CPC
33.1%
NDP
14.1%
PPC
1.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Riding ID: 10001