Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

Liberal Party of Canada
Majority

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win

229
of 343 seats • 172 for majority
229
78
22
172 maj.
Liberal Party of Canada 229 +60
Conservative Party of Canada 78 -66
Bloc Québécois 22
New Democratic Party 12 +5
Green Party of Canada 2 +1

Overview

Detailed seat & vote breakdown by region

Electoral Map

Interactive map with riding-level projections

All Ridings

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Simulator

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343 seats · 172 for majority
Liberal Party of Canada Majority (229/172)
New DemocraticParty12Green Party ofCanada2Liberal Partyof Canada229Bloc Québécois22ConservativeParty ofCanada78

Hemicycle layout is used for universal compatibility across all parliamentary systems and does not represent the actual chamber seating arrangement.

Coalition Builder
Seat Projection

343 total seats

LPC
Liberal Party of Canada
229 +60
★
CPC
Conservative Party of Canada
78 -66
BQ
Bloc Québécois
22
NDP
New Democratic Party
12 +5
GPC
Green Party of Canada
2 +1
Popular Vote

General vote share

LPC
Liberal Party of Canada 45.8%
CPC
Conservative Party of Canada 34.1%
NDP
New Democratic Party 9.3%
BQ
Bloc Québécois 6.0%
GPC
Green Party of Canada 2.4%
Regional Summary

Seat projections by region with changes from 2025

Geographic Levels

Choose which geographical levels to display. Regional level is ABOVE Subnational level.

Regional Summary

RegionLPCCPCNDPBQGPCTotal
GENERAL
229
+60
45.8%
+2.1%
78
-66
34.1%
-7.1%
12
+5
9.3%
+3.0%
22
6.0%
-0.3%
2
+1
2.4%
+1.2%
343
97.7%
Alberta AB
11
+9
33.9%
+6.0%
24
-10
50.7%
-12.8%
2
+1
8.4%
+2.1%
0
0.0%
0
1.8%
+1.3%
37
94.7%
Atlantic Canada ATL
27
+3
52.7%
-2.7%
5
-3
31.4%
-6.7%
0
11.1%
+6.8%
0
0.0%
0
3.4%
+2.3%
32
98.5%
British Columbia BC
29
+9
45.4%
+3.6%
9
-10
35.5%
-5.6%
4
+1
13.6%
+0.6%
0
0.0%
1
3.4%
+0.4%
43
98.0%
Ontario ON
100
+30
51.2%
+2.1%
18
-34
35.0%
-8.7%
3
+3
9.5%
+4.6%
0
0.0%
1
+1
2.2%
+1.0%
122
97.9%
Prairies (Sask/Manitoba) PR
12
+5
37.5%
+3.6%
14
-6
46.8%
-8.0%
2
+1
9.9%
+0.2%
0
0.0%
0
2.1%
+1.4%
28
96.2%
Quebec QC
47
+3
43.0%
+0.4%
8
-3
21.0%
-2.3%
1
6.0%
+1.5%
22
26.5%
-1.2%
0
2.3%
+1.4%
78
98.8%
Territories TR
3
+1
49.6%
-0.9%
0
27.3%
-7.3%
0
-1
15.2%
+1.6%
0
0.0%
0
2.1%
+0.8%
3
94.2%
Manitoba MB
7
+1
43.8%
+3.7%
5
-2
38.9%
-7.4%
2
+1
11.8%
+0.1%
0
0.0%
0
2.1%
+1.4%
14
96.6%
New Brunswick NB
7
+1
51.6%
-1.8%
3
-1
34.4%
-6.5%
0
8.5%
+5.6%
0
0.0%
0
4.1%
+2.4%
10
98.6%
Newfoundland & Labrador NL
5
+1
51.1%
-3.0%
2
-1
32.8%
-6.9%
0
12.7%
+7.2%
0
0.0%
0
2.1%
+2.0%
7
98.6%
Nova Scotia NS
11
+1
53.9%
-3.4%
0
-1
28.3%
-6.8%
0
13.0%
+7.7%
0
0.0%
0
3.2%
+2.3%
11
98.3%
Northwest Territories NT
1
51.5%
-2.2%
0
25.7%
-7.4%
0
15.5%
+3.4%
0
0.0%
0
1.5%
+0.4%
1
94.2%
Nunavut NU
1
+1
39.1%
+2.7%
0
20.1%
-6.1%
0
-1
32.9%
-4.5%
0
0.0%
0
1.7%
+1.7%
1
93.9%
Prince Edward Island PEI
4
55.5%
-1.9%
0
30.7%
-6.3%
0
7.7%
+5.2%
0
0.0%
0
4.5%
+2.3%
4
98.4%
Saskatchewan SK
5
+4
30.1%
+3.6%
9
-4
55.8%
-8.7%
0
7.8%
+0.2%
0
0.0%
0
2.0%
+1.5%
14
95.8%
Yukon YK
1
51.9%
-1.1%
0
30.9%
-7.6%
0
8.8%
+2.5%
0
0.0%
0
2.7%
+0.7%
1
94.3%
Seat Probability Distribution

50,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Region:
LPC LPC
184-257 224 seats
CPC CPC
57-122 85 seats
BQ BQ
11-28 21 seats
NDP NDP
5-15 11 seats
GPC GPC
0-2 2 seats
PPC PPC
-1-0 0 seats
OTH OTH
-1-0 0 seats
04998147196245294
172
95% CI
80% CI
50% CI
Median
Majority (172)
PartyMedianMean95% CI
LPC
224223.1184–257
CPC
8586.557–122
BQ
2120.911–28
NDP
1110.95–15
GPC
21.70–2
PPC
00.0-1–0
OTH
00.0-1–0

Methodology: Monte Carlo with correlated error model with Hierarchical: national + regional + riding-level noise. 95% confidence intervals shown. Read the full methodology →

Win Probability

Chance of winning most seats

LPC Liberal Party of Canada
100.0%
Majority: 99.5% Minority: 0.5%
CPC Conservative Party of Canada
0.0%
Majority: 0.0% Minority: 0.0%
Any party wins majority 99.5%
Election Scenarios

Probability of each outcome

LPC LPC majority
99.5%
LPC LPC minority
0.5%
CPC CPC minority
0.0%
Tie
0.0%
Full bar = Majority
Faded = Minority
Regional Leaders

Projected winning party by region

Alberta
AB
CPC 24
CPC
Atlantic Canada
ATL
LPC 27
LPC
British Columbia
BC
LPC 29
LPC
Ontario
ON
LPC 100
LPC
Prairies (Sask/Manitoba)
PR
CPC 14
CPC
Quebec
QC
LPC 47
LPC
Territories
TR
LPC 3
LPC