Canada Seat Calculator
Type any set of vote shares into the simulator and see how it would play out riding-by-riding across the Canada electoral map. Real constituency boundaries, live model, shareable scenario URLs.
How the canada seat calculator works
Enter the vote share you expect each party to receive — nationally, regionally, or riding-by-riding — and the calculator projects how those votes translate into seats under the actual Canada electoral system. Every riding gets its own projection based on its historical voting pattern, the swing you've specified, and the demographic profile of the area. The result is a full seat count plus a riding-level map you can drill into.
Unlike a uniform-swing calculator, PoliWave's model accounts for regional variation, vote-flow between parties, demographic tilts, and tactical voting in marginal seats. You can also pin specific riding outcomes, model new parties poaching votes from a specific source, and replay historical elections with alternative scenarios.
What you can do with it
Type any vote share
Set national, regional, subnational, or per-riding vote shares. Mix and match — the model respects your overrides.
Model party dynamics
Vote flow between parties, demographic biases, tactical voting in marginals, and regional adjustments.
Riding-by-riding map
Interactive map of every projected winner with margins, win probabilities, and previous results.
Save & share scenarios
Every scenario gets a permanent URL. Email it, post it, embed it — the calculation is fully reproducible.
Other Canada seat calculators
Methodology
The calculator runs the same model that powers our live projections — log-space proportional swing combined with uniform-swing fallback, sigmoid-bounded so extreme inputs don't blow up, and Monte Carlo simulation for win probabilities. Full methodology and the source of every baseline are documented on the methodology page.
Ready to run a scenario?
Type any vote share, see the seats and the map, share the URL. No sign-up, free forever.
Open the Canada Seat Calculator