Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

BC · BC · GVC

Saanich-Gulf Islands

Green Party of Canada projected to win by +4.7%.

GPC
Projected winner
GPC
Win prob 76.0%
Voters · 2025 79,657
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.86× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • GPC GPC
    76.0%
  • LPC LPC
    23.9%
  • CPC CPC
    0.1%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • GPC GPC +0.1
    39.2% ±9.0
  • LPC LPC +2.7
    34.5% ±8.8
  • CPC CPC -4.6
    20.5% ±7.4
  • NDP NDP +0.3
    4.2% ±3.7
  • OTH OTH +0.9
    0.9% ±2.8
  • PPC PPC +0.7
    0.7% ±2.8

Past elections in Saanich-Gulf Islands

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Green Party of Canada +7.3% — Elizabeth May
79,657 votes
  • GPC Elizabeth May 39.1% Won
  • LPC David Beckham 31.8%
  • CPC Cathie Ounsted 25.1%
  • NDP Colin Plant 4.0%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Saanich-Gulf Islands demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.1%
    • 0 to 4 years 3.1%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.2%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.2%
    • 10 to 14 years 4.5%
    • 10 to 14 years 4.5%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.0%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.0%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.8%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.5%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.5%
    • 30 to 34 years 4.4%
    • 30 to 34 years 4.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.1%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.2%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.2%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.4%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.4%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.2%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.1%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.1%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.2%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 8.6%
    • 65 to 69 years 8.6%
    • 70 to 74 years 8.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 8.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 5.9%
    • 75 to 79 years 5.9%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.8%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.8%
    • 85 years and over 4.5%
    • 85 years and over 4.5%

Average age

  • Average age 48.6
  • Average age 48.6

Median age

  • Median age 52.4
  • Median age 52.4

Average size of census families

  • Average size of census families 2.6
  • Average size of census families 2.6

Average number of children in census families with children

  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.7
  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.7

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $40,000
    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $40,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 15.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 8.5%
  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 8.5%

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.342

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

  • English only 89.6%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 9.3%
  • Neither English nor French 1.0%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

  • English 85.2%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 3.4%
    • Non-Indigenous 3.4%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 9.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 119,660

    • English 99.0%
    • English 99.0%
    • French 9.3%
    • French 9.3%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 21.3%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 21.3%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 4.2%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 2.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 26.7%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,010
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,532

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 119,665

  • Non-immigrants 76.2%
    • Before 1980 8.9%
    • Before 1980 8.9%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.8%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.8%
    • 1991 to 2000 2.8%
    • 1991 to 2000 2.8%
    • 2001 to 2010 3.6%
    • 2001 to 2010 3.6%
    • 2011 to 2021 3.6%
    • 2011 to 2021 3.6%
  • Non-permanent residents 2.0%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 119,665

  • First generation 25.7%
  • Second generation 22.4%
  • Third generation or more 52.0%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 15,335

    • Principal applicants 25.8%
    • Principal applicants 25.8%
    • Secondary applicants 31.9%
    • Secondary applicants 31.9%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 36.2%
  • Refugees 5.1%
  • Other immigrants 1.0%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Chinese 6.4%
    • Chinese 6.4%
    • South Asian 3.7%
    • South Asian 3.7%
    • Filipino 1.5%
    • Filipino 1.5%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
  • Not a visible minority 83.4%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 119,660

  • English 31.8%
  • Scottish 22.9%
  • Irish 17.4%
  • German 12.0%
  • Canadian 10.9%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 7.2%
  • French, n.o.s. 7.0%
  • Chinese 6.4%
  • Ukrainian 4.6%
  • Dutch 4.4%
  • Welsh 3.5%
  • Norwegian 3.3%
  • Italian 3.1%
  • Polish 3.0%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.8%
  • Swedish 2.5%
  • American 2.3%
  • Indian (India) 2.2%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.0%
  • Russian 1.8%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Danish 1.6%
  • Filipino 1.5%
  • Métis 1.2%
  • French Canadian 1.1%
  • Portuguese 1.1%
  • Hungarian 1.1%
  • Austrian 1.1%
  • Japanese 1.1%
  • Spanish 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 119,660

  • Buddhist 1.1%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.5%
    • Anabaptist 0.1%
    • Anabaptist 0.1%
    • Anglican 6.5%
    • Anglican 6.5%
    • Baptist 1.3%
    • Baptist 1.3%
    • Catholic 10.3%
    • Catholic 10.3%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.6%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.3%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.3%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.4%
    • Lutheran 1.1%
    • Lutheran 1.1%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 0.6%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 0.6%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 4.6%
    • United Church 4.6%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.1%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.1%
  • Hindu 0.7%
  • Jewish 0.7%
  • Muslim 0.8%
  • Sikh 1.9%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.2%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 1.3%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 57.8%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 9.7%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 27.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 28.1%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 28.1%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 34.8%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 34.8%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.1
    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.1

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.7%
    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.7%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 16.9%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 16.9%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 9.1%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 9.1%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.5%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 14.1%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 14.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 4.7%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 4.7%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.6%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.6%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 14.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 14.8%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 3.2%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 3.2%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 1.8%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 1.8%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

  • English 97.6%
  • French 1.2%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • Neither English nor French 1.0%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

    • Official languages 83.0%
    • Official languages 83.0%
    • Non-official languages 14.9%
    • Non-official languages 14.9%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.5%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

    • Official languages 91.3%
    • Official languages 91.3%
    • Non-official languages 6.7%
    • Non-official languages 6.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.8%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.8%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,695

  • None 90.4%
  • English 2.8%
  • French 0.8%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 4.9%
    • Non-Indigenous 4.9%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.4%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,030

  • Under 5 years 9.8%
  • 5 to 14 years 17.0%
  • 15 to 24 years 20.5%
  • 25 to 44 years 41.7%
  • 45 years and over 11.1%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,030

    • United States of America 10.1%
    • United States of America 10.1%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.3%
    • Mexico 1.1%
    • Mexico 1.1%
    • Other (16 <1%) 0.0%
    • United Kingdom 23.8%
    • United Kingdom 23.8%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.6%
    • Germany 4.1%
    • Germany 4.1%
    • Netherlands 2.4%
    • Netherlands 2.4%
    • Portugal 1.6%
    • Portugal 1.6%
    • Poland 1.1%
    • Poland 1.1%
    • Italy 1.0%
    • Italy 1.0%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.2%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.2%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.1%
    • Other (16 <1%) 0.0%
    • China 11.6%
    • China 11.6%
    • India 6.5%
    • India 6.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.6%
    • Philippines 4.5%
    • Philippines 4.5%
    • Hong Kong 2.4%
    • Hong Kong 2.4%
    • Korea, South 1.5%
    • Korea, South 1.5%
    • Iran 1.1%
    • Iran 1.1%
    • Viet Nam 1.0%
    • Viet Nam 1.0%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 2.0%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 2,225

    • United States of America 12.1%
    • United States of America 12.1%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.8%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.8%
    • Mexico 1.6%
    • Mexico 1.6%
    • Brazil 1.1%
    • Brazil 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%
    • United Kingdom 6.7%
    • United Kingdom 6.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.7%
    • Germany 1.8%
    • Germany 1.8%
    • Ukraine 1.1%
    • Ukraine 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 1.1%
    • South Africa, Republic of 1.1%
    • Other (28 <1%) 0.0%
    • China 22.9%
    • China 22.9%
    • India 13.3%
    • India 13.3%
    • Philippines 11.7%
    • Philippines 11.7%
    • Korea, South 3.4%
    • Korea, South 3.4%
    • Japan 2.9%
    • Japan 2.9%
    • Syria 2.7%
    • Syria 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.2%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.2%
    • Viet Nam 1.3%
    • Viet Nam 1.3%
    • Turkey 1.1%
    • Turkey 1.1%
    • Other (26 <1%) 0.0%
    • Australia 0.4%
    • Australia 0.4%
    • Other places of birth 0.4%
    • Other places of birth 0.4%

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 15,335

  • Asylum claim before admission 1.0%
  • Work permits only before admission 17.0%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 7.6%
  • Other permits before admission 0.8%
  • No pre-admission experience 68.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 65,190

  • English 96.9%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 65,190

    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Non-official languages 0.9%
    • Non-official languages 0.9%
    • Other (10 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 65,190

  • None 97.8%
  • English 0.4%
  • French 0.6%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.9%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.9%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 18,390

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.2%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.8%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 14,230

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.6%
    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.6%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.7%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.7%

RIDING ID · 202359029