Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

BC · BC · VI FLIPPED

North Island-Powell River

New Democratic Party projected to win by +0.5%.

NDP
Projected winner
NDP
Win prob 46.7%
Voters · 2025 80,813
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.85× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • NDP NDP
    46.7%
  • CPC CPC
    42.0%
  • LPC LPC
    11.3%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • NDP NDP +1.5
    34.1% ±8.7
  • CPC CPC -5.1
    33.7% ±8.7
  • LPC LPC +3.1
    29.2% ±8.3
  • GPC GPC +0.3
    2.3% ±2.8
  • PPC PPC +0.2
    0.6% ±2.8

Past elections in North Island-Powell River

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +6.2% — Aaron Gunn
80,813 votes
  • CPC Aaron Gunn 38.8% Won
  • NDP Tanille Johnston 32.6%
  • LPC Jennifer Lash 26.0%
  • GPC Jessica Wegg 1.9%
  • PPC Paul Macknight 0.4%
  • IND Glen Staples 0.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

North Island-Powell River demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.7%
    • 0 to 4 years 3.7%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.8%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.8%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.1%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.1%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.8%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.8%
    • 20 to 24 years 3.9%
    • 20 to 24 years 3.9%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.4%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.4%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.0%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.6%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.6%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.5%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.9%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.9%
    • 60 to 64 years 9.2%
    • 60 to 64 years 9.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 9.1%
    • 65 to 69 years 9.1%
    • 70 to 74 years 7.9%
    • 70 to 74 years 7.9%
    • 75 to 79 years 5.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 5.3%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.1%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.9%
    • 85 years and over 2.9%

Average age

  • Average age 47.4
  • Average age 47.4

Median age

  • Median age 51.2
  • Median age 51.2

Average size of census families

  • Average size of census families 2.6
  • Average size of census families 2.6

Average number of children in census families with children

  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.7
  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.7

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,000
    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 22.4%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 11.3%
  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 11.3%

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.307

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

  • English only 91.9%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 7.9%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

  • English 93.2%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.9%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.9%
  • English and French 1.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 4.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 123,280

    • English 99.7%
    • English 99.7%
    • French 7.9%
    • French 7.9%
    • Indigenous languages 0.8%
    • Indigenous languages 0.8%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 9.5%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 9.5%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 11.6%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 6.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 25.5%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $840
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,170

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 123,280

  • Non-immigrants 87.8%
    • Before 1980 6.0%
    • Before 1980 6.0%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.3%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.3%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.2%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.2%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.3%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.3%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.8%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.8%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 123,275

  • First generation 13.5%
  • Second generation 17.6%
  • Third generation or more 68.9%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 6,885

    • Principal applicants 24.7%
    • Principal applicants 24.7%
    • Secondary applicants 29.0%
    • Secondary applicants 29.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 38.5%
  • Refugees 7.1%
  • Other immigrants 0.7%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Filipino 1.0%
    • Filipino 1.0%
    • Other (22 <1%) 3.1%
  • Not a visible minority 94.9%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 123,280

  • English 32.6%
  • Scottish 25.3%
  • Irish 19.1%
  • German 13.6%
  • Canadian 12.7%
  • French, n.o.s. 9.7%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 5.7%
  • Ukrainian 5.2%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 5.2%
  • Dutch 4.8%
  • Norwegian 4.4%
  • Swedish 3.6%
  • Italian 3.4%
  • Welsh 3.4%
  • Polish 3.0%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.9%
  • Métis 2.6%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.1%
  • Russian 2.0%
  • Danish 1.9%
  • American 1.8%
  • Finnish 1.4%
  • French Canadian 1.2%
  • Hungarian 1.1%
  • North American Indigenous, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Austrian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 123,280

  • Buddhist 0.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.3%
    • Anabaptist 0.2%
    • Anabaptist 0.2%
    • Anglican 4.5%
    • Anglican 4.5%
    • Baptist 1.4%
    • Baptist 1.4%
    • Catholic 9.7%
    • Catholic 9.7%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.2%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.2%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.7%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.7%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.3%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.3%
    • Lutheran 1.0%
    • Lutheran 1.0%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.0%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.0%
    • Presbyterian 0.6%
    • Presbyterian 0.6%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 3.8%
    • United Church 3.8%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.0%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.0%
  • Hindu 0.3%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 0.2%
  • Sikh 0.3%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.4%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 1.3%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 63.9%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 15.3%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.7%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 35.0%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 35.0%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 17.9%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 17.9%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 39.8
    • Average weeks worked in reference year 39.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.2%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.2%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 5.7%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 5.7%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.2%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.2%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.1%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.1%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 25.0%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 25.0%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 20.0%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 20.0%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 6.1%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 6.1%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2.9%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2.9%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

  • English 97.8%
  • French 1.8%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

    • Official languages 92.1%
    • Official languages 92.1%
    • Non-official languages 6.5%
    • Non-official languages 6.5%
    • Other (10 <1%) 1.4%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

    • Official languages 97.4%
    • Official languages 97.4%
    • Non-official languages 1.9%
    • Non-official languages 1.9%
    • Other (10 <1%) 0.8%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,750

  • None 95.2%
  • English 1.0%
  • French 0.9%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.3%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.3%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 14,280

  • Under 5 years 13.6%
  • 5 to 14 years 18.3%
  • 15 to 24 years 21.8%
  • 25 to 44 years 38.7%
  • 45 years and over 7.5%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 14,280

    • United States of America 13.5%
    • United States of America 13.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.9%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.9%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
    • United Kingdom 30.4%
    • United Kingdom 30.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.7%
    • Germany 6.9%
    • Germany 6.9%
    • Netherlands 3.5%
    • Netherlands 3.5%
    • Italy 2.1%
    • Italy 2.1%
    • France 1.6%
    • France 1.6%
    • Poland 1.2%
    • Poland 1.2%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.5%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.5%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.3%
    • Other (16 <1%) 0.0%
    • Philippines 6.3%
    • Philippines 6.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.6%
    • India 2.2%
    • India 2.2%
    • Viet Nam 2.0%
    • Viet Nam 2.0%
    • Korea, South 1.8%
    • Korea, South 1.8%
    • China 1.5%
    • China 1.5%
    • Other (22 <1%) 0.0%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 3.0%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 1,185

    • United States of America 11.4%
    • United States of America 11.4%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 5.9%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 5.9%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • Mexico 1.3%
    • Mexico 1.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%
    • United Kingdom 9.7%
    • United Kingdom 9.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.6%
    • France 2.5%
    • France 2.5%
    • Ukraine 1.3%
    • Ukraine 1.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 5.1%
    • South Africa, Republic of 5.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.0%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.3%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.3%
    • Nigeria 1.3%
    • Nigeria 1.3%
    • Other (22 <1%) 0.0%
    • Philippines 13.5%
    • Philippines 13.5%
    • China 5.5%
    • China 5.5%
    • India 5.5%
    • India 5.5%
    • Korea, South 4.6%
    • Korea, South 4.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.5%
    • Japan 2.1%
    • Japan 2.1%
    • Viet Nam 1.7%
    • Viet Nam 1.7%
    • Other (30 <1%) 0.0%
    • Australia 3.8%
    • Australia 3.8%
    • Other places of birth 1.3%
    • Other places of birth 1.3%

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 6,885

  • Asylum claim before admission 0.9%
  • Work permits only before admission 24.7%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.7%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.8%
  • Other permits before admission 1.7%
  • No pre-admission experience 64.1%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 63,445

  • English 97.6%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 63,445

    • Official languages 99.5%
    • Official languages 99.5%
    • Non-official languages 0.3%
    • Non-official languages 0.3%
    • Other (10 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 63,445

  • None 98.2%
  • English 0.3%
  • French 0.8%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 21,240

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 10.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 90.0%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 16,150

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.4%
    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.4%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.1%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 89.5%

RIDING ID · 202359021