2025
Conservative Party of Canada +9.3% — Sukhman Gill55,192 votes
- CPC Sukhman Gill 43.1% Won
- LPC Kevin Gillies 33.8%
- IND Michael de Jong 17.6%
- NDP Dharmasena Yakandawela 3.8%
- GPC Melissa Snazell 1.0%
- PPC Aeriol Alderking 0.8%
Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +0.2%.
Chance of winning this seat
Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous
PPC +0.2Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections
Running in this riding
No candidates announced yet
High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.
n = 114,410
n = 114,410
n = 113,725
n = 113,730
n = 113,730
n = 23,215
n = 113,730
n = 113,730
n = 114,410
n = 114,410
n = 114,410
n = 114,410
n = 29,110
n = 29,110
n = 4,190
n = 23,215
n = 64,365
n = 64,365
n = 64,365
n = 22,505
n = 16,245