Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

AB · AB · SRA

Ponoka-Didsbury

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +44.6%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 68,588
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.93× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -23.8
    58.0% ±9.5
  • LPC LPC +13.3
    13.4% ±6.5
  • NDP NDP +1.8
    12.6% ±6.4
  • OTH OTH +5.3
    10.8% ±6.0
  • PPC PPC +2.0
    3.9% ±3.7
  • GPC GPC +1.4
    1.4% ±2.9

Past elections in Ponoka-Didsbury

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +71.0% — Blaine Calkins
68,588 votes
  • CPC Blaine Calkins 81.8% Won
  • NDP Logan Hooley 10.8%
  • UPC Grant Abraham 3.1%
  • IND Zarnab Zafar 2.4%
  • PPC Larry Gratton 1.9%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Ponoka-Didsbury demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.6%
    • 0 to 4 years 5.6%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.8%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.8%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.9%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.9%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.1%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.1%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.8%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.5%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.5%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.4%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.0%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.4%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.4%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.9%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.9%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.0%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.0%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.3%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.2%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.7%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.7%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.2%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.2%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.0%
    • 85 years and over 2.0%

Average age

  • Average age 40.8
  • Average age 40.8

Median age

  • Median age 40.8
  • Median age 40.8

Average size of census families

  • Average size of census families 2.9
  • Average size of census families 2.9

Average number of children in census families with children

  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.9
  • Average number of children in census families with children 1.9

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,400
    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 18.0%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 10.0%
  • Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%) 10.0%

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.316

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

  • English only 96.0%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 3.8%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

  • English 93.5%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.3%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.3%
  • English and French 0.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 4.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 111,795

    • English 99.8%
    • English 99.8%
    • French 3.9%
    • French 3.9%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 8.5%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 8.5%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 6.2%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 1.8%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 23.9%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,350
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,454

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 111,800

  • Non-immigrants 91.4%
    • Before 1980 2.0%
    • Before 1980 2.0%
    • 1980 to 1990 0.8%
    • 1980 to 1990 0.8%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.0%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.0%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.5%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.5%
    • 2011 to 2021 2.7%
    • 2011 to 2021 2.7%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 111,800

  • First generation 9.2%
  • Second generation 14.4%
  • Third generation or more 76.4%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 6,720

    • Principal applicants 26.0%
    • Principal applicants 26.0%
    • Secondary applicants 40.8%
    • Secondary applicants 40.8%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 27.5%
  • Refugees 5.2%
  • Other immigrants 0.5%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Filipino 2.3%
    • Filipino 2.3%
    • Other (22 <1%) 1.0%
  • Not a visible minority 94.4%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 111,800

  • English 26.5%
  • German 22.9%
  • Scottish 20.7%
  • Irish 17.1%
  • Canadian 16.7%
  • French, n.o.s. 8.9%
  • Dutch 8.4%
  • Ukrainian 7.7%
  • Norwegian 6.3%
  • Swedish 4.0%
  • Polish 3.7%
  • Russian 3.2%
  • Métis 3.1%
  • Welsh 2.9%
  • Danish 2.8%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 2.7%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.5%
  • American 2.5%
  • Filipino 2.2%
  • Italian 2.0%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.0%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.8%
  • Hungarian 1.6%
  • Albertan 1.4%
  • Cree, n.o.s. 1.3%
  • Swiss 1.3%
  • Finnish 1.1%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 111,795

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 13.4%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 13.4%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anglican 2.3%
    • Anglican 2.3%
    • Baptist 1.8%
    • Baptist 1.8%
    • Catholic 12.5%
    • Catholic 12.5%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.3%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.3%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.8%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.8%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.7%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.7%
    • Lutheran 3.4%
    • Lutheran 3.4%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.5%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.5%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.1%
    • Presbyterian 1.1%
    • Presbyterian 1.1%
    • Reformed 1.3%
    • Reformed 1.3%
    • United Church 6.3%
    • United Church 6.3%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 5.5%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 5.5%
  • Hindu 0.3%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 0.2%
  • Sikh 0.1%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.7%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 47.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 18.0%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 32.1%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 37.1%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 37.1%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 12.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 12.7%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 40.5
    • Average weeks worked in reference year 40.5

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.4%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.4%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.3%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.3%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.9%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.9%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 8.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 8.5%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.8%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.8%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.2%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.2%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.7%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.7%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 12.3%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 12.3%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.6%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.6%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

  • English 98.9%
  • French 0.9%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

    • Official languages 92.4%
    • Official languages 92.4%
    • Non-official languages 6.3%
    • Non-official languages 6.3%
    • Other (10 <1%) 1.2%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

    • Official languages 96.2%
    • Official languages 96.2%
    • Non-official languages 2.8%
    • Non-official languages 2.8%
    • Other (10 <1%) 1.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,930

  • None 95.8%
  • English 1.3%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.0%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 8,920

  • Under 5 years 10.2%
  • 5 to 14 years 20.7%
  • 15 to 24 years 17.3%
  • 25 to 44 years 44.1%
  • 45 years and over 7.6%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 8,920

    • United States of America 9.3%
    • United States of America 9.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.7%
    • Mexico 2.1%
    • Mexico 2.1%
    • Other (16 <1%) 0.0%
    • United Kingdom 13.9%
    • United Kingdom 13.9%
    • Netherlands 11.8%
    • Netherlands 11.8%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 6.2%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 6.2%
    • Germany 5.9%
    • Germany 5.9%
    • Ukraine 1.2%
    • Ukraine 1.2%
    • Poland 1.0%
    • Poland 1.0%
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.6%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.3%
    • Other (16 <1%) 0.0%
    • Philippines 22.5%
    • Philippines 22.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.6%
    • India 2.6%
    • India 2.6%
    • Korea, South 1.6%
    • Korea, South 1.6%
    • Other (26 <1%) 0.0%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 1.8%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 1,500

    • Brazil 1.3%
    • Brazil 1.3%
    • Colombia 0
    • Colombia 0
    • Haiti 0
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 1.0%
    • Jamaica 1.0%
    • Mexico 2.7%
    • Mexico 2.7%
    • United States of America 6.7%
    • United States of America 6.7%
    • Venezuela 0.7%
    • Venezuela 0.7%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.3%
    • France 0
    • France 0
    • Germany 3.0%
    • Germany 3.0%
    • Ireland 0
    • Ireland 0
    • Italy 0
    • Italy 0
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Ukraine 4.3%
    • Ukraine 4.3%
    • United Kingdom 1.7%
    • United Kingdom 1.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.7%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.7%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.7%
    • Nigeria 1.3%
    • Nigeria 1.3%
    • Other (26 <1%) 0.0%
    • Philippines 48.0%
    • Philippines 48.0%
    • India 5.7%
    • India 5.7%
    • Sri Lanka 2.0%
    • Sri Lanka 2.0%
    • Pakistan 1.7%
    • Pakistan 1.7%
    • Korea, South 1.3%
    • Korea, South 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.3%
    • Other (32 <1%) 0.0%
    • Australia 1.0%
    • Australia 1.0%
    • Other places of birth 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 6,720

  • Asylum claim before admission 1.5%
  • Work permits only before admission 27.5%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.2%
  • Work and study permits before admission 3.6%
  • Other permits before admission 0.8%
  • No pre-admission experience 62.3%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,000

  • English 98.9%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 64,000

    • Official languages 99.7%
    • Official languages 99.7%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • Other (10 <1%) 0.1%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,000

  • None 99.2%
  • English 0.1%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 26,760

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 3.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 96.3%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 19,850

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 0.9%
    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 0.9%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.8%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 96.3%

RIDING ID · 202348033