Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

SK · PR · RSK

Yorkton-Melville

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +50.5%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 37,038
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.26× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -9.6
    67.8% ±10.9
  • LPC LPC +2.9
    17.3% ±8.8
  • NDP NDP +0.1
    5.6% ±5.4
  • GPC GPC +1.3
    3.4% ±4.3
  • PPC PPC +3.1
    3.1% ±4.1
  • OTH OTH +2.1
    2.8% ±3.8

Past elections in Yorkton-Melville

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +63.0% — Cathay Wagantall
37,038 votes
  • CPC Cathay Wagantall 77.4% Won
  • LPC Luke Guimond 14.4%
  • NDP Michaela Krakowetz 5.5%
  • GPC Valerie Brooks 2.1%
  • LP Alec Guggenmos 0.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Yorkton-Melville demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.3%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.9%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.4%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.5%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.5%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.9%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.7%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.2%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.8%
    • 65 to 69 years 7.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.9%
    • 75 to 79 years 4.2%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.3%
    • 85 years and over 3.7%

Average age

44.2

Riding value

Median age

45.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.9

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $35,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 21.0%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

16.3%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.324

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

  • English only 97.6%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 2.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.3%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

  • English 92.3%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.6%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 5.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 71,320

    • English 99.7%
    • French 2.1%
    • Indigenous languages 1.1%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 11.3%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 12.5%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 7.8%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 21.6%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $650
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $903

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 71,320

  • Non-immigrants 92.6%
    • 2011 to 2021 3.7%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.4%
    • Other (3 <1%) 1.4%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.9%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 71,320

  • First generation 7.8%
  • Second generation 11.2%
  • Third generation or more 81.0%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 4,045

    • Principal applicants 31.0%
    • Secondary applicants 48.1%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 18.3%
  • Refugees 2.2%
  • Other immigrants 0.2%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Filipino 2.8%
    • South Asian 1.3%
    • Other (10 <1%) 2.1%
  • Not a visible minority 93.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 71,320

  • Ukrainian 25.3%
  • German 24.6%
  • English 20.3%
  • Scottish 15.2%
  • Irish 11.4%
  • Canadian 10.7%
  • Polish 8.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 7.3%
  • Norwegian 6.9%
  • Swedish 4.2%
  • Hungarian 3.8%
  • Métis 3.6%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 3.4%
  • Russian 3.4%
  • Saulteaux 3.0%
  • Dutch 2.6%
  • Filipino 2.6%
  • Icelandic 2.1%
  • Austrian 1.8%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Cree, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Welsh 1.4%
  • Danish 1.0%
  • Czech 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 71,320

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 8.2%
    • Anabaptist 1.3%
    • Anglican 2.6%
    • Baptist 1.4%
    • Catholic 21.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 2.5%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.5%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 7.3%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.2%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.3%
    • Presbyterian 0.3%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 10.7%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 3.1%
  • Hindu 0.6%
  • Jewish 0.0%
  • Muslim 0.3%
  • Sikh 0.3%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 1.5%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.6%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 35.4%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 23.1%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 35.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 30.2%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 11.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 10.7%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 3.0%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 9.0%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.5%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 19.6%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 19.3%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.1%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

  • English 99.2%
  • French 0.5%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • Neither English nor French 0.3%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

    • Official languages 89.0%
    • Non-official languages 9.1%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

    • Official languages 95.4%
    • Non-official languages 3.4%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.1%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 72,045

  • None 95.0%
  • English 1.4%
  • French 0.3%
    • Indigenous 0.3%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.5%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 4,605

  • Under 5 years 9.8%
  • 5 to 14 years 19.7%
  • 15 to 24 years 14.1%
  • 25 to 44 years 49.3%
  • 45 years and over 7.2%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 4,605

    • United States of America 5.9%
    • Mexico 3.1%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.5%
    • Jamaica 2.0%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.5%
    • United Kingdom 6.6%
    • Ukraine 4.8%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.6%
    • Germany 3.1%
    • Poland 1.6%
    • Netherlands 1.3%
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 3.3%
    • Nigeria 2.4%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.3%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.1%
    • Philippines 34.0%
    • India 7.9%
    • China 3.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.4%
    • Pakistan 1.3%
    • Other (12 <1%) 2.2%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.4%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 1,260

    • Jamaica 6.0%
    • Mexico 5.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.8%
    • United States of America 2.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.1%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.8%
    • Ukraine 4.0%
    • United Kingdom 2.0%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.3%
    • South Africa, Republic of 5.6%
    • Nigeria 3.6%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.2%
    • Egypt 1.2%
    • Other (11 <1%) 1.5%
    • Philippines 31.7%
    • India 19.8%
    • China 2.4%
    • Pakistan 2.0%
    • Other (18 <1%) 0.8%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 4,045

  • Asylum claim before admission 0.4%
  • Work permits only before admission 27.6%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.5%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.2%
  • Other permits before admission 0.4%
  • No pre-admission experience 64.0%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 38,875

  • English 98.3%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 38,875

    • Official languages 99.3%
    • Non-official languages 0.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 38,875

  • None 98.9%
  • English 0.3%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 15,625

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 2.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 97.9%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 11,480

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 0.7%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 1.4%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 98.0%

RIDING ID · 202347014