Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

MB · PR · WPG

Winnipeg South

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +34.7%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 46,423
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.12× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +4.3
    63.1% ±10.4
  • CPC CPC -6.8
    28.3% ±9.8
  • NDP NDP -0.1
    4.4% ±4.4
  • PPC PPC +0.8
    1.7% ±3.3
  • GPC GPC +0.8
    1.4% ±3.3
  • OTH OTH +1.0
    1.0% ±3.3

Past elections in Winnipeg South

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +23.6% — Terry Duguid
46,423 votes
  • LPC Terry Duguid 58.8% Won
  • CPC Janice Morley-Lecomte 35.1%
  • NDP Joanne Bjornson 4.5%
  • PPC Johann Rempel Fehr 0.9%
  • GPC Manjit Kaur 0.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Winnipeg South demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.5%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.1%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.3%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.4%
    • 20 to 24 years 10.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 8.0%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.3%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.7%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 5.6%
    • 60 to 64 years 5.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.6%
    • 70 to 74 years 3.8%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.5%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.5%
    • 85 years and over 1.3%

Average age

37.5

Riding value

Median age

35.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

3

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $34,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 15.1%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

14.0%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.347

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

  • English only 85.9%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 11.2%
  • Neither English nor French 2.8%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

  • English 57.4%
  • French 0.9%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 11.6%
  • English and French 2.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 25.7%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.8%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.2%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 99,185

    • English 97.1%
    • French 11.6%
    • Indigenous languages 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 45.9%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 6.7%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 2.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 30.6%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,490
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,542

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 99,190

  • Non-immigrants 57.0%
    • Before 1980 3.1%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.9%
    • 1991 to 2000 2.7%
    • 2001 to 2010 7.9%
    • 2011 to 2021 17.6%
  • Non-permanent residents 9.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 99,190

  • First generation 43.6%
  • Second generation 17.0%
  • Third generation or more 39.3%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 29,940

    • Principal applicants 29.4%
    • Secondary applicants 44.5%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 16.4%
  • Refugees 9.4%
  • Other immigrants 0.3%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 15.6%
    • Chinese 12.2%
    • Black 8.4%
    • Filipino 3.5%
    • Arab 2.2%
    • Latin American 1.1%
    • Southeast Asian 1.2%
    • West Asian 1.0%
    • Korean 1.2%
    • Japanese 0.2%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.7%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.1%
  • Not a visible minority 51.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 99,185

  • English 12.7%
  • Chinese 11.7%
  • Scottish 11.1%
  • German 9.0%
  • Ukrainian 8.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 8.7%
  • Irish 8.6%
  • Indian (India) 7.1%
  • Canadian 6.7%
  • Polish 4.4%
  • Métis 3.9%
  • Filipino 3.6%
  • Dutch 2.6%
  • Italian 2.3%
  • Russian 2.3%
  • Pakistani 2.1%
  • Punjabi 2.1%
  • Mennonite 2.0%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 1.9%
  • Yoruba 1.9%
  • Nigerian 1.8%
  • Icelandic 1.7%
  • Belgian 1.6%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.5%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.5%
  • Asian, n.o.s. 1.4%
  • French Canadian 1.3%
  • Sikh 1.3%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Swedish 1.2%
  • Norwegian 1.1%
  • Korean 1.1%
  • Hindu 1.1%
  • Bangladeshi 1.1%
  • Welsh 1.0%
  • Spanish 1.0%
  • Arab, n.o.s. 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 99,185

  • Buddhist 1.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 9.6%
    • Anabaptist 0.9%
    • Anglican 2.3%
    • Baptist 1.0%
    • Catholic 17.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.7%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.2%
    • Lutheran 1.7%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 2.0%
    • Presbyterian 0.4%
    • Reformed 0.0%
    • United Church 3.8%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.6%
  • Hindu 4.8%
  • Jewish 0.9%
  • Muslim 7.9%
  • Sikh 4.7%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.2%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 1.0%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 35.8%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 10.3%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 27.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 24.3%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 38.0%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 40.7

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.1%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 18.0%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 9.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.6%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 14.5%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.4%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 26.6%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 12.5%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.0%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 3.1%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

  • English 93.2%
  • French 3.5%
  • English and French 0.7%
  • Neither English nor French 2.7%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

    • Official languages 57.8%
    • Non-official languages 35.9%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.4%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

    • Official languages 69.0%
    • Non-official languages 24.3%
    • English and non-official language(s) 6.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.7%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,235

  • None 75.3%
  • English 10.0%
  • French 1.5%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 9.3%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.2%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 33,025

  • Under 5 years 9.0%
  • 5 to 14 years 18.4%
  • 15 to 24 years 15.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 47.5%
  • 45 years and over 9.5%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 33,025

    • United States of America 1.8%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.2%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.4%
    • United Kingdom 2.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.8%
    • Ukraine 1.5%
    • Russian Federation 1.1%
    • Other (12 <1%) 4.8%
    • Nigeria 8.7%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.0%
    • Egypt 2.0%
    • Other (7 <1%) 2.5%
    • Afghanistan 0.4%
    • Iran 1.0%
    • Iraq 1.8%
    • Lebanon 0.1%
    • Syria 1.0%
    • Turkey 0.2%
    • China 16.5%
    • Hong Kong 1.2%
    • Korea, South 2.2%
    • Taiwan 0.3%
    • Philippines 7.3%
    • Viet Nam 1.5%
    • Bangladesh 2.1%
    • India 17.5%
    • Pakistan 5.0%
    • Sri Lanka 2.0%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.5%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 10,040

    • Brazil 2.6%
    • United States of America 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.5%
    • Ukraine 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.5%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.2%
    • Nigeria 13.8%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.6%
    • Egypt 1.3%
    • Other (12 <1%) 2.3%
    • China 22.2%
    • India 20.5%
    • Pakistan 4.6%
    • Iraq 3.4%
    • Bangladesh 2.7%
    • Korea, South 2.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.3%
    • Syria 2.2%
    • Philippines 2.0%
    • Sri Lanka 1.4%
    • Viet Nam 1.0%
    • Other (11 <1%) 4.0%
    • Australia 0.1%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 29,940

  • Asylum claim before admission 1.3%
  • Work permits only before admission 6.2%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.2%
  • Work and study permits before admission 10.6%
  • Other permits before admission 0.3%
  • No pre-admission experience 78.4%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 58,290

  • English 91.0%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.1%
  • English and French 2.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 4.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 58,290

    • Official languages 96.6%
    • Non-official languages 2.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.3%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 58,290

  • None 93.9%
  • English 1.3%
  • French 1.7%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.5%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 21,895

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 13.3%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 86.7%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 16,005

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 10.1%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.2%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 85.8%

RIDING ID · 202346012