Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

MB · PR · WPG

St. Boniface-St. Vital

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +37.9%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 54,522
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.04× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +3.6
    63.4% ±9.9
  • CPC CPC -6.8
    25.5% ±8.9
  • NDP NDP -0.1
    6.8% ±5.2
  • PPC PPC +0.8
    1.7% ±3.1
  • GPC GPC +1.6
    1.6% ±3.1
  • OTH OTH +1.0
    1.0% ±3.1

Past elections in St. Boniface-St. Vital

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +27.5% — Ginette Lavack
54,522 votes
  • LPC Ginette Lavack 59.8% Won
  • CPC Shola Agboola 32.3%
  • NDP Thomas Linner 6.9%
  • PPC Gilles Pelletier 1.0%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

St. Boniface-St. Vital demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.4%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.6%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.4%
    • 20 to 24 years 6.2%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.4%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.7%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.4%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.0%
    • 55 to 59 years 6.6%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.4%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.7%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.0%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.6%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.5%
    • 85 years and over 2.5%

Average age

41.5

Riding value

Median age

40.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.9

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 16.5%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

11.4%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.330

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

  • English only 78.0%
  • French only 0.6%
  • English and French 20.4%
  • Neither English nor French 1.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

  • English 72.7%
  • French 3.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 4.3%
  • English and French 5.4%
  • English and non-official language(s) 12.7%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 98,020

    • English 98.3%
    • French 20.8%
    • Indigenous languages 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 25.3%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 12.7%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 2.9%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 28.6%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,270
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,364

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 98,020

  • Non-immigrants 77.3%
    • Before 1980 3.2%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.6%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.8%
    • 2001 to 2010 4.1%
    • 2011 to 2021 9.5%
  • Non-permanent residents 2.5%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 98,020

  • First generation 23.5%
  • Second generation 16.9%
  • Third generation or more 59.6%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 16,685

    • Principal applicants 25.7%
    • Secondary applicants 38.7%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 18.3%
  • Refugees 16.9%
  • Other immigrants 0.4%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 5.9%
    • Chinese 2.4%
    • Black 6.7%
    • Filipino 3.5%
    • Arab 1.6%
    • Latin American 1.1%
    • Southeast Asian 1.2%
    • West Asian 0.3%
    • Korean 0.7%
    • Japanese 0.3%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.4%
    • Multiple visible minorities 0.8%
  • Not a visible minority 75.2%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 98,020

  • English 17.5%
  • French, n.o.s. 16.8%
  • Scottish 16.2%
  • Ukrainian 12.9%
  • German 12.6%
  • Irish 12.5%
  • Canadian 8.6%
  • Métis 8.3%
  • Polish 6.2%
  • Filipino 3.6%
  • Indian (India) 3.1%
  • Chinese 2.9%
  • Russian 2.9%
  • Dutch 2.8%
  • Italian 2.6%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 2.5%
  • French Canadian 2.5%
  • Belgian 2.5%
  • Icelandic 2.4%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.1%
  • Mennonite 2.1%
  • Norwegian 1.6%
  • Swedish 1.6%
  • Welsh 1.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.3%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.3%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Spanish 1.0%
  • Hungarian 1.0%
  • Pakistani 1.0%
  • Austrian 1.0%
  • Yoruba 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 98,020

  • Buddhist 0.9%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 8.8%
    • Anabaptist 0.9%
    • Anglican 2.8%
    • Baptist 0.8%
    • Catholic 24.4%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.5%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.3%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 1.8%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.6%
    • Presbyterian 0.4%
    • Reformed 0.0%
    • United Church 4.6%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.2%
  • Hindu 2.0%
  • Jewish 0.5%
  • Muslim 4.7%
  • Sikh 1.4%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.2%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.8%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 39.2%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 13.5%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 28.5%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 27.0%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 31.0%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.2

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.3%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 18.2%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 7.7%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.3%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 14.9%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.3%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 24.5%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 14.6%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.2%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 3.1%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

  • English 88.2%
  • French 10.0%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • Neither English nor French 1.0%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

    • Official languages 77.6%
    • Non-official languages 17.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.6%
    • English and French 1.4%
    • Other (3 <1%) 0.7%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

    • Official languages 85.8%
    • Non-official languages 9.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.0%
    • English and French 1.2%
    • Other (3 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,080

  • None 83.8%
  • English 5.3%
  • French 3.1%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 5.6%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.7%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 19,795

  • Under 5 years 11.4%
  • 5 to 14 years 18.5%
  • 15 to 24 years 16.0%
  • 25 to 44 years 46.4%
  • 45 years and over 7.8%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 19,795

    • United States of America 3.0%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.4%
    • Jamaica 1.4%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.2%
    • Other (7 <1%) 3.8%
    • United Kingdom 5.1%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.0%
    • Ukraine 2.0%
    • Poland 1.9%
    • Germany 1.8%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.2%
    • France 1.0%
    • Italy 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.8%
    • Algeria 0.9%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.2%
    • Egypt 0.7%
    • Eritrea 1.3%
    • Ethiopia 1.1%
    • Morocco 1.0%
    • Nigeria 8.2%
    • Somalia 0.1%
    • South Africa, Republic of 0.7%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 5.9%
    • Philippines 11.6%
    • India 10.2%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.0%
    • Pakistan 4.7%
    • China 4.1%
    • Viet Nam 2.7%
    • Korea, South 2.3%
    • Syria 1.6%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.7%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.3%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 5,450

    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.7%
    • Brazil 2.5%
    • United States of America 2.0%
    • Jamaica 1.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.1%
    • Ukraine 1.4%
    • France 1.0%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.8%
    • Nigeria 20.9%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.8%
    • Algeria 3.1%
    • Morocco 1.3%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.1%
    • Eritrea 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 4.1%
    • India 14.1%
    • Philippines 8.7%
    • Syria 5.1%
    • Pakistan 5.0%
    • China 3.9%
    • Korea, South 3.6%
    • Bangladesh 1.5%
    • Viet Nam 1.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.3%
    • Other (13 <1%) 4.6%
    • Australia 0.3%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 16,685

  • Asylum claim before admission 1.9%
  • Work permits only before admission 7.8%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.5%
  • Work and study permits before admission 7.0%
  • Other permits before admission 0.4%
  • No pre-admission experience 80.4%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 56,345

  • English 89.9%
  • French 1.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
  • English and French 5.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 56,345

    • Official languages 98.0%
    • Non-official languages 0.7%
    • English and French 1.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 56,345

  • None 93.5%
  • English 1.7%
  • French 3.4%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.0%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 20,260

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 22.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 77.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 14,520

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 17.6%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 76.3%

RIDING ID · 202346008