Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · DUR

Whitby

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +20.5%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 99.9%
Voters · 2025 68,449
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.93× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    99.9%
  • CPC CPC
    0.1%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +3.4
    56.0% ±9.5
  • CPC CPC -8.5
    35.4% ±9.2
  • NDP NDP +3.4
    5.8% ±4.5
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.2% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +1.2
    1.2% ±2.9

Past elections in Whitby

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +8.7% — Ryan Turnbull
68,449 votes
  • LPC Ryan Turnbull 52.6% Won
  • CPC Steve Yamada 43.9%
  • NDP Kevin Goswell 2.4%
  • GPC Andrew Di Lullo 0.8%
  • CENT Nouman Mian 0.3%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Whitby demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.3%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.1%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.8%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.5%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.9%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.6%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.7%
    • 45 to 49 years 7.0%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.0%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.6%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.3%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.9%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.1%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.7%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.8%
    • 85 years and over 2.2%

Average age

40.2

Riding value

Median age

40.4

Riding value

Average size of census families

3.1

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $41,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 14.9%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

5.8%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.304

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

  • English only 90.6%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 8.0%
  • Neither English nor French 1.3%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

  • English 75.5%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 4.8%
  • English and French 1.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 16.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.7%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.4%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 113,315

    • English 98.6%
    • French 8.0%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 28.7%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.5%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 28.2%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,992

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 113,315

  • Non-immigrants 69.1%
    • Before 1980 7.3%
    • 1980 to 1990 3.6%
    • 1991 to 2000 5.8%
    • 2001 to 2010 6.6%
    • 2011 to 2021 7.0%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 113,315

  • First generation 31.7%
  • Second generation 27.9%
  • Third generation or more 40.4%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 26,045

    • Principal applicants 20.0%
    • Secondary applicants 30.2%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 33.2%
  • Refugees 15.3%
  • Other immigrants 1.4%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 13.4%
    • Chinese 3.7%
    • Black 10.0%
    • Filipino 2.9%
    • Arab 1.1%
    • Latin American 1.2%
    • Southeast Asian 0.5%
    • West Asian 1.8%
    • Korean 0.4%
    • Japanese 0.2%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 1.5%
    • Multiple visible minorities 2.0%
  • Not a visible minority 61.4%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 113,315

  • English 18.7%
  • Irish 15.8%
  • Scottish 15.5%
  • Canadian 12.8%
  • Indian (India) 6.5%
  • German 5.8%
  • Italian 5.8%
  • French, n.o.s. 5.4%
  • Chinese 4.5%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 4.5%
  • Jamaican 3.8%
  • Dutch 3.3%
  • Polish 3.0%
  • Filipino 3.0%
  • Portuguese 2.5%
  • Pakistani 2.4%
  • Ukrainian 2.3%
  • Guyanese 1.7%
  • Welsh 1.6%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Greek 1.5%
  • Sri Lankan 1.5%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.4%
  • Tamil 1.4%
  • Afghan 1.4%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Spanish 1.2%
  • French Canadian 1.1%
  • Trinidadian/Tobagonian 1.1%
  • American 1.0%
  • Hindu 1.0%
  • African Caribbean 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 113,315

  • Buddhist 0.7%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 8.6%
    • Anabaptist 0.0%
    • Anglican 4.8%
    • Baptist 1.1%
    • Catholic 25.5%
    • Christian Orthodox 2.6%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.2%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.5%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.4%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 2.1%
    • Presbyterian 1.4%
    • Reformed 0.2%
    • United Church 4.0%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.3%
  • Hindu 6.1%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 7.7%
  • Sikh 0.5%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 30.5%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 12.5%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 27.5%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 30.3%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 29.7%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.6

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.1%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 19.9%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 10.2%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.1%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.1%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 14.6%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.1%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 3.6%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

  • English 96.8%
  • French 1.4%
  • English and French 0.5%
  • Neither English nor French 1.3%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

    • Official languages 74.9%
    • Non-official languages 20.6%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.0%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

    • Official languages 84.7%
    • Non-official languages 10.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,960

  • None 84.4%
  • English 4.8%
  • French 1.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 7.7%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.9%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 34,265

  • Under 5 years 10.7%
  • 5 to 14 years 19.3%
  • 15 to 24 years 20.0%
  • 25 to 44 years 43.1%
  • 45 years and over 6.9%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 34,265

    • Jamaica 7.5%
    • Guyana 4.1%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.6%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 2.7%
    • United States of America 2.4%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.4%
    • United Kingdom 8.9%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.3%
    • Italy 2.1%
    • Poland 1.4%
    • Netherlands 1.3%
    • Germany 1.2%
    • Romania 1.1%
    • Portugal 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.9%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.5%
    • Nigeria 1.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.2%
    • Afghanistan 2.9%
    • Iran 0.9%
    • Iraq 0.4%
    • Lebanon 0.9%
    • Syria 0.3%
    • Turkey 0.1%
    • China 5.5%
    • Hong Kong 1.1%
    • Korea, South 0.8%
    • Taiwan 0.1%
    • Philippines 5.7%
    • Viet Nam 0.6%
    • Bangladesh 1.3%
    • India 13.1%
    • Pakistan 5.7%
    • Sri Lanka 5.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.3%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 4,255

    • Brazil 2.0%
    • Colombia 0
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 3.6%
    • Mexico 1.1%
    • United States of America 3.1%
    • Venezuela 0.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.5%
    • United Kingdom 1.3%
    • Other (6 <1%) 1.2%
    • Nigeria 3.3%
    • Egypt 1.1%
    • Other (13 <1%) 2.2%
    • India 41.1%
    • China 6.8%
    • Philippines 6.8%
    • Pakistan 6.2%
    • Afghanistan 3.5%
    • Syria 2.0%
    • Sri Lanka 1.5%
    • Bangladesh 1.1%
    • Korea, South 1.1%
    • Other (13 <1%) 5.3%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 26,045

  • Asylum claim before admission 7.4%
  • Work permits only before admission 11.2%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.4%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.4%
  • Other permits before admission 0.5%
  • No pre-admission experience 74.2%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,340

  • English 95.8%
  • French 0.3%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 1.4%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 64,340

    • Official languages 98.6%
    • Non-official languages 0.9%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.6%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,340

  • None 97.0%
  • English 0.5%
  • French 1.0%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.1%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 26,050

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 8.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.3%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 19,435

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 5.4%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.9%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 90.7%

RIDING ID · 202335116