Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · YRK

Thornhill

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +22.6%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 66,918
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.94× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    100.0%
  • LPC LPC
    0.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -8.6
    57.8% ±9.5
  • LPC LPC +4.0
    35.2% ±9.2
  • NDP NDP +2.8
    4.1% ±3.8
  • PPC PPC +0.6
    1.2% ±2.9
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.0% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Thornhill

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +35.2% — Melissa Lantsman
66,918 votes
  • CPC Melissa Lantsman 66.4% Won
  • LPC Liane Kotler 31.2%
  • NDP William McCarty 1.2%
  • PPC Amir Hart 0.7%
  • GPC Dominic Piotrowski 0.5%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Thornhill demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.1%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.1%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.9%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.3%
    • 20 to 24 years 6.4%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.2%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.2%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.9%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.2%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.0%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.0%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.2%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.3%
    • 85 years and over 2.5%

Average age

42.4

Riding value

Median age

43.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

3

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 14.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

9.5%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.382

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

  • English only 88.3%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 7.6%
  • Neither English nor French 4.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

  • English 48.2%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 15.8%
  • English and French 0.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 32.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.5%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 123,660

    • English 95.8%
    • French 7.7%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 64.0%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 0.2%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 39.8%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,840
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $2,174

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 123,655

  • Non-immigrants 44.4%
    • Before 1980 8.7%
    • 1980 to 1990 7.1%
    • 1991 to 2000 12.3%
    • 2001 to 2010 13.2%
    • 2011 to 2021 10.8%
  • Non-permanent residents 3.5%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 123,655

  • First generation 56.6%
  • Second generation 28.0%
  • Third generation or more 15.4%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 53,650

    • Principal applicants 26.6%
    • Secondary applicants 40.4%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 22.4%
  • Refugees 9.5%
  • Other immigrants 1.1%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 6.1%
    • Chinese 11.8%
    • Black 2.4%
    • Filipino 4.5%
    • Arab 0.7%
    • Latin American 1.3%
    • Southeast Asian 1.0%
    • West Asian 6.8%
    • Korean 5.1%
    • Japanese 0.1%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 1.0%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.5%
  • Not a visible minority 57.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 123,660

  • Jewish 18.3%
  • Chinese 11.3%
  • Russian 10.8%
  • Polish 5.9%
  • Italian 5.7%
  • Iranian 5.5%
  • Canadian 5.3%
  • Korean 5.0%
  • Filipino 4.3%
  • Israeli 3.9%
  • Indian (India) 3.8%
  • Ukrainian 3.4%
  • English 3.3%
  • Irish 2.5%
  • Scottish 2.5%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.3%
  • Persian 2.1%
  • Romanian 1.8%
  • German 1.7%
  • Eastern European, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Hungarian 1.4%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Greek 1.2%
  • Asian, n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Moroccan 1.2%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Portuguese 1.1%
  • French, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Spanish 1.0%
  • Vietnamese 1.0%
  • Lithuanian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 123,660

  • Buddhist 1.8%
    • Catholic 15.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 5.0%
    • Presbyterian 1.2%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.2%
    • Anglican 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.1%
  • Hindu 3.1%
  • Jewish 31.4%
  • Muslim 6.5%
  • Sikh 0.5%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.6%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 23.5%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 10.0%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 21.9%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 21.5%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 46.6%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 40.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.9%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 23.0%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 13.4%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.2%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.9%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.5%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 9.4%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.5%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2.9%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

  • English 94.1%
  • French 0.9%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • Neither English nor French 4.0%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

    • Official languages 44.2%
    • Non-official languages 50.4%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.3%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

    • Official languages 61.8%
    • Non-official languages 30.8%
    • English and non-official language(s) 6.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,565

  • None 70.1%
  • English 11.5%
  • French 0.8%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 13.1%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.8%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 64,365

  • Under 5 years 7.2%
  • 5 to 14 years 15.6%
  • 15 to 24 years 17.3%
  • 25 to 44 years 48.2%
  • 45 years and over 11.7%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 64,365

    • United States of America 1.8%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.6%
    • Jamaica 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.9%
    • Russian Federation 7.9%
    • Ukraine 6.0%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.4%
    • Italy 2.8%
    • United Kingdom 1.5%
    • Romania 1.4%
    • Other (10 <1%) 4.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.4%
    • Morocco 1.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.0%
    • Other (7 <1%) 0.9%
    • Afghanistan 0.2%
    • Iran 10.5%
    • Iraq 0.4%
    • Lebanon 0.2%
    • Syria 0.1%
    • Turkey 0.7%
    • China 9.9%
    • Hong Kong 2.9%
    • Korea, South 6.9%
    • Taiwan 0.6%
    • Philippines 6.5%
    • Viet Nam 1.8%
    • Bangladesh 0.2%
    • India 4.1%
    • Pakistan 0.8%
    • Sri Lanka 1.0%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 11.4%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 6,500

    • United States of America 2.3%
    • Brazil 1.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.2%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.8%
    • Ukraine 4.9%
    • Russian Federation 4.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.4%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.1%
    • Nigeria 2.0%
    • Other (14 <1%) 1.2%
    • China 19.2%
    • Iran 14.5%
    • Philippines 12.2%
    • India 7.0%
    • Israel 5.0%
    • Korea, South 4.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.5%
    • Turkey 3.4%
    • Pakistan 1.7%
    • Viet Nam 1.2%
    • Other (12 <1%) 2.9%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 53,650

  • Asylum claim before admission 5.2%
  • Work permits only before admission 7.3%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.2%
  • Work and study permits before admission 5.3%
  • Other permits before admission 0.3%
  • No pre-admission experience 78.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 71,760

  • English 89.2%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.8%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 7.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 71,760

    • Official languages 94.7%
    • Non-official languages 3.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.6%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 71,760

  • None 92.8%
  • English 1.6%
  • French 0.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 3.8%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.6%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 24,255

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 8.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.0%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 18,755

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.8%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.5%

RIDING ID · 202335106