Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · EON

Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +4.1%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 71.7%
Voters · 2025 66,354
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.94× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    71.7%
  • LPC LPC
    28.3%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -9.2
    47.3% ±9.7
  • LPC LPC +3.5
    43.2% ±9.6
  • NDP NDP +3.5
    6.0% ±4.6
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.6% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +1.4
    1.4% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.1
    0.5% ±2.9

Past elections in Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +16.8% — Eric Duncan
66,354 votes
  • CPC Eric Duncan 56.4% Won
  • LPC Sarah Good 39.7%
  • NDP Mario Leclerc 2.5%
  • GPC Gordon Kubanek 1.0%
  • LP Karl Ivan MacKinnon 0.4%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.9%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.4%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.5%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.0%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.6%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.6%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.7%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.4%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.2%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 8.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.5%
    • 65 to 69 years 7.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 6.5%
    • 75 to 79 years 4.4%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.0%
    • 85 years and over 3.0%

Average age

44.9

Riding value

Median age

47.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $35,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 23.1%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

13.0%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.308

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

  • English only 61.7%
  • French only 1.0%
  • English and French 37.0%
  • Neither English nor French 0.3%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

  • English 79.3%
  • French 7.4%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.3%
  • English and French 8.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 112,235

    • English 98.7%
    • French 38.1%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 7.9%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 4.4%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 1.6%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 25.4%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,110

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 112,235

  • Non-immigrants 92.5%
    • Before 1980 2.7%
    • 1980 to 1990 0.8%
    • 1991 to 2000 0.9%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.1%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.4%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 112,235

  • First generation 8.2%
  • Second generation 10.1%
  • Third generation or more 81.7%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 4,715

    • Principal applicants 18.5%
    • Secondary applicants 25.5%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 37.4%
  • Refugees 15.7%
  • Other immigrants 3.1%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 2.4%
    • Black 1.1%
    • Other (10 <1%) 2.0%
  • Not a visible minority 94.5%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 112,235

  • Canadian 23.5%
  • French, n.o.s. 23.3%
  • Scottish 21.1%
  • Irish 20.2%
  • English 16.7%
  • German 7.7%
  • Dutch 5.7%
  • French Canadian 5.5%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 4.5%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.0%
  • Italian 2.5%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.4%
  • Polish 1.5%
  • Welsh 1.5%
  • Métis 1.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.4%
  • Ontarian 1.2%
  • North American Indigenous, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Ukrainian 1.0%
  • American 1.0%
  • Mohawk 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 112,235

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Catholic 45.2%
    • United Church 6.4%
    • Anglican 3.8%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 3.7%
    • Presbyterian 2.9%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.7%
    • Other (9 <1%) 4.2%
  • Hindu 0.8%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 1.8%
  • Sikh 0.1%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 27.6%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 19.0%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 32.9%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 35.4%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 12.8%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 15.0%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.5%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.7%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 10.4%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.5%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 22.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.2%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 5.1%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 7.0%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

  • English 80.3%
  • French 18.6%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

    • Official languages 91.1%
    • Non-official languages 5.3%
    • English and French 2.8%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.8%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

    • Official languages 95.0%
    • Non-official languages 2.4%
    • English and French 1.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.8%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,170

  • None 90.4%
  • English 2.8%
  • French 4.8%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.4%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 7,770

  • Under 5 years 12.7%
  • 5 to 14 years 20.7%
  • 15 to 24 years 21.7%
  • 25 to 44 years 39.6%
  • 45 years and over 5.4%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 7,770

    • United States of America 9.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.7%
    • Guyana 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.6%
    • United Kingdom 17.8%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.7%
    • Netherlands 7.0%
    • Germany 5.3%
    • Italy 1.9%
    • France 1.7%
    • Poland 1.5%
    • Hungary 1.2%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.6%
    • Nigeria 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.6%
    • Pakistan 8.7%
    • Sri Lanka 4.7%
    • India 3.8%
    • Philippines 3.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.0%
    • China 1.6%
    • Other (11 <1%) 4.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.5%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 885

    • Brazil 1.1%
    • Colombia 1.1%
    • Haiti 1.1%
    • Jamaica 0
    • Mexico 0
    • United States of America 8.5%
    • Venezuela 2.8%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.3%
    • United Kingdom 8.5%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.4%
    • Other (6 <1%) 1.1%
    • Tunisia 3.4%
    • Nigeria 2.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.3%
    • Algeria 1.7%
    • Morocco 1.1%
    • Other (10 <1%) 5.0%
    • Pakistan 21.5%
    • Philippines 10.2%
    • India 7.9%
    • Syria 4.0%
    • China 1.7%
    • Japan 1.1%
    • United Arab Emirates 1.1%
    • Other (15 <1%) 5.6%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 4,715

  • Asylum claim before admission 9.7%
  • Work permits only before admission 10.8%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.0%
  • Work and study permits before admission 3.6%
  • Other permits before admission 1.2%
  • No pre-admission experience 71.6%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 58,740

  • English 76.6%
  • French 3.8%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 19.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 58,740

    • Official languages 96.5%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • English and French 3.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.1%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 58,740

  • None 83.7%
  • English 2.9%
  • French 13.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 21,955

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 41.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 58.9%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 15,935

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 26.8%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 14.2%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 59.1%

RIDING ID · 202335102