Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · YRK FLIPPED

Richmond Hill South

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +4.7%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 74.5%
Voters · 2025 58,577
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.00× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    74.5%
  • CPC CPC
    25.5%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +4.1
    48.5% ±10.1
  • CPC CPC -8.5
    43.8% ±10.0
  • NDP NDP +3.1
    4.9% ±4.3
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.4% ±3.0
  • PPC PPC +0.7
    1.1% ±3.0

Past elections in Richmond Hill South

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +7.9% — Vincent Neil Ho
58,577 votes
  • CPC Vincent Neil Ho 52.3% Won
  • LPC Majid Jowhari 44.4%
  • NDP Ebrahim Astaraki 1.8%
  • GPC Alison Lam 0.9%
  • PPC Joshua Sideris 0.4%
  • IND Yan Wang 0.2%
  • CFP Juni Yeung 0.1%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Richmond Hill South demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.4%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.3%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.2%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.8%
    • 20 to 24 years 6.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.2%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.3%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.0%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.2%
    • 45 to 49 years 7.2%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.9%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.3%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.4%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.5%
    • 85 years and over 2.4%

Average age

43.9

Riding value

Median age

45.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.9

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.6

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $32,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 17.0%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

14.0%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.390

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

  • English only 86.3%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 6.5%
  • Neither English nor French 7.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

  • English 35.4%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 23.8%
  • English and French 0.6%
  • English and non-official language(s) 37.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.8%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 124,270

    • English 92.9%
    • French 6.4%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 74.0%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 0.3%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 44.6%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,740
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $2,196

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 124,265

  • Non-immigrants 35.9%
    • Before 1980 8.3%
    • 1980 to 1990 8.0%
    • 1991 to 2000 15.9%
    • 2001 to 2010 14.2%
    • 2011 to 2021 13.6%
  • Non-permanent residents 4.1%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 124,265

  • First generation 65.1%
  • Second generation 24.7%
  • Third generation or more 10.2%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 64,270

    • Principal applicants 26.0%
    • Secondary applicants 39.8%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 23.5%
  • Refugees 9.0%
  • Other immigrants 1.7%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 7.0%
    • Chinese 34.6%
    • Black 2.3%
    • Filipino 2.4%
    • Arab 1.4%
    • Latin American 1.2%
    • Southeast Asian 0.6%
    • West Asian 13.3%
    • Korean 3.4%
    • Japanese 0.2%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.7%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.8%
  • Not a visible minority 31.2%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 124,270

  • Chinese 30.5%
  • Iranian 10.4%
  • Italian 6.1%
  • Canadian 4.2%
  • English 4.2%
  • Indian (India) 4.2%
  • Persian 3.9%
  • Russian 3.8%
  • Irish 3.7%
  • Scottish 3.3%
  • Korean 3.3%
  • Hong Konger 3.2%
  • Jewish 2.8%
  • Filipino 2.4%
  • German 2.0%
  • Asian, n.o.s. 2.0%
  • Ukrainian 1.9%
  • Polish 1.7%
  • Greek 1.6%
  • French, n.o.s. 1.3%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Portuguese 1.0%
  • Pakistani 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 124,270

  • Buddhist 2.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 9.2%
    • Anabaptist 0.1%
    • Anglican 1.3%
    • Baptist 1.1%
    • Catholic 17.8%
    • Christian Orthodox 4.7%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.2%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.0%
    • Lutheran 0.3%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 0.4%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 1.2%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.4%
  • Hindu 2.5%
  • Jewish 4.1%
  • Muslim 12.3%
  • Sikh 0.3%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.9%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 38.5%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 11.2%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 23.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 21.1%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 44.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 39.9

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 21.9%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 15.4%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.4%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 9.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 3.2%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.7%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 10.1%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.6%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2.9%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

  • English 91.2%
  • French 0.6%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • Neither English nor French 7.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

    • Official languages 32.3%
    • Non-official languages 61.3%
    • English and non-official language(s) 5.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.2%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

    • Official languages 49.2%
    • Non-official languages 42.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 7.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 124,270

  • None 66.2%
  • English 15.1%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 13.9%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.5%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 74,610

  • Under 5 years 6.6%
  • 5 to 14 years 14.8%
  • 15 to 24 years 16.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 48.0%
  • 45 years and over 14.0%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 74,610

    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.1%
    • United States of America 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.7%
    • Italy 2.8%
    • Russian Federation 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.2%
    • Ukraine 1.8%
    • United Kingdom 1.3%
    • Other (11 <1%) 3.9%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.8%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.8%
    • Afghanistan 0.7%
    • Iran 17.7%
    • Iraq 0.8%
    • Lebanon 0.4%
    • Syria 0.2%
    • Turkey 0.5%
    • China 22.8%
    • Hong Kong 14.0%
    • Korea, South 3.8%
    • Taiwan 1.2%
    • Philippines 3.5%
    • Viet Nam 1.0%
    • Bangladesh 0.2%
    • India 3.5%
    • Pakistan 1.2%
    • Sri Lanka 0.7%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.5%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 8,070

    • United States of America 1.4%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.3%
    • Other (6 <1%) 1.5%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.9%
    • Ukraine 1.6%
    • Russian Federation 1.4%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.0%
    • Nigeria 1.2%
    • Other (14 <1%) 2.3%
    • China 31.0%
    • Iran 22.7%
    • India 7.9%
    • Philippines 6.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.0%
    • Korea, South 2.8%
    • Hong Kong 2.7%
    • Iraq 1.8%
    • Pakistan 1.7%
    • Afghanistan 1.4%
    • Turkey 1.1%
    • Other (11 <1%) 3.4%
    • Australia 0.2%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 64,270

  • Asylum claim before admission 4.8%
  • Work permits only before admission 5.4%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 5.8%
  • Other permits before admission 0.3%
  • No pre-admission experience 79.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 69,375

  • English 84.0%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 3.6%
  • English and French 1.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 11.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 69,375

    • Official languages 90.5%
    • Non-official languages 6.6%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.6%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 69,375

  • None 90.0%
  • English 2.5%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 5.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 20,930

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 7.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 16,335

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 5.8%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.5%

RIDING ID · 202335089