Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · SWO FLIPPED

Perth-Wellington

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +0.2%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 51.4%
Voters · 2025 64,100
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.96× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    51.4%
  • CPC CPC
    48.6%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +2.2
    43.0% ±9.7
  • CPC CPC -10.2
    42.8% ±9.7
  • NDP NDP +4.6
    9.1% ±5.6
  • GPC GPC +2.7
    2.7% ±3.2
  • PPC PPC -0.0
    1.7% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Perth-Wellington

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +12.2% — John Nater
64,100 votes
  • CPC John Nater 53.0% Won
  • LPC David Mackey 40.8%
  • NDP Kevin Kruchkywich 4.5%
  • PPC Wayne Baker 1.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Perth-Wellington demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 6.2%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.4%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.3%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.0%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.5%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.1%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.2%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.4%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.4%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.2%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.1%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.1%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.5%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.6%
    • 85 years and over 2.7%

Average age

41.5

Riding value

Median age

41.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

3

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

2.1

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 18.2%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

9.6%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.298

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

  • English only 95.4%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 3.7%
  • Neither English nor French 0.9%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

  • English 89.2%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 4.5%
  • English and French 0.4%
  • English and non-official language(s) 5.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 111,970

    • English 99.1%
    • French 3.7%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 15.0%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.5%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 23.2%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,150
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,304

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 111,965

  • Non-immigrants 90.8%
    • Before 1980 3.3%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.1%
    • 1991 to 2000 1.1%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.3%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.6%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 111,970

  • First generation 9.9%
  • Second generation 14.1%
  • Third generation or more 76.0%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 5,795

    • Principal applicants 18.8%
    • Secondary applicants 28.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 36.6%
  • Refugees 16.0%
  • Other immigrants 0.6%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 1.3%
    • Black 1.0%
    • Other (10 <1%) 2.5%
  • Not a visible minority 95.2%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 111,965

  • English 27.2%
  • German 24.7%
  • Scottish 24.0%
  • Irish 21.8%
  • Canadian 17.2%
  • Dutch 10.1%
  • French, n.o.s. 6.0%
  • Swiss 4.0%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.9%
  • Mennonite 3.3%
  • Italian 2.4%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.2%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.9%
  • Polish 1.8%
  • Welsh 1.7%
  • Ukrainian 1.4%
  • American 1.1%
  • Mexican 1.1%
  • Ontarian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 111,965

  • Buddhist 0.4%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 11.4%
    • Anabaptist 8.1%
    • Anglican 3.7%
    • Baptist 1.3%
    • Catholic 15.2%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.4%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.2%
    • Lutheran 4.5%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.5%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 0.8%
    • Presbyterian 5.1%
    • Reformed 1.3%
    • United Church 9.6%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.5%
  • Hindu 0.6%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 0.5%
  • Sikh 0.2%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 32.8%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 24.2%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.0%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 30.1%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 14.6%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 43.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.6%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.5%
    • 3 Health occupations 6.4%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 8.3%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.5%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 20.3%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 21.3%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 10.4%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 10.7%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

  • English 98.6%
  • French 0.5%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.8%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

    • Official languages 86.6%
    • Non-official languages 12.3%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.1%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

    • Official languages 92.3%
    • Non-official languages 6.8%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,445

  • None 94.6%
  • English 2.0%
  • French 0.3%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.7%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 9,470

  • Under 5 years 14.7%
  • 5 to 14 years 22.0%
  • 15 to 24 years 22.1%
  • 25 to 44 years 36.0%
  • 45 years and over 5.2%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 9,470

    • Mexico 9.9%
    • United States of America 7.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.9%
    • United Kingdom 18.8%
    • Netherlands 12.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 6.3%
    • Germany 4.9%
    • Italy 2.1%
    • Portugal 1.8%
    • Romania 1.6%
    • Poland 1.5%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.4%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.3%
    • India 4.7%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.1%
    • Philippines 3.6%
    • Syria 2.0%
    • China 1.5%
    • Other (12 <1%) 3.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 1.1%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 1,105

    • Brazil 1.4%
    • Colombia 2.3%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 1.4%
    • Mexico 14.9%
    • United States of America 6.3%
    • Venezuela 0.9%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.5%
    • United Kingdom 3.2%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.4%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.2%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 4.5%
    • Other (14 <1%) 2.3%
    • India 19.0%
    • Philippines 13.6%
    • Syria 13.6%
    • China 1.8%
    • Korea, South 1.4%
    • Other (17 <1%) 4.0%
    • Australia 1.4%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 5,795

  • Asylum claim before admission 3.5%
  • Work permits only before admission 13.9%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.1%
  • Other permits before admission 0.8%
  • No pre-admission experience 74.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,640

  • English 96.3%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.5%
  • English and French 0.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 64,640

    • Official languages 97.6%
    • Non-official languages 2.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 64,640

  • None 98.2%
  • English 0.6%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.8%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 25,980

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 4.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 95.9%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 18,340

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.0%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.3%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 95.7%

RIDING ID · 202335085